Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 13, 2944-2953, Copyright © 1995 by American Society of Clinical Oncology
Evaluation of prostate-specific antigen as a surrogate marker for response of hormone-refractory prostate cancer to suramin therapy
R Sridhara, MA Eisenberger, VJ Sinibaldi, LM Reyno and MJ Egorin
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, University of Maryland Cancer Center, Baltimore 21201, USA.
PURPOSE: We evaluated the surrogate role of serum prostate-specific antigen
(PSA) using prospectively collected information from patients with
hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC) treated with suramin. MATERIALS
AND METHODS: Data from 103 patients were analyzed using survival analysis,
exploratory analysis, and regression analysis. RESULTS: There was a
significant survival difference between groups of patients with a PSA
decrease of < or = 0% or greater than 0% (P = .018). There were no
significant overall survival differences between groups of patients with
PSA decreases less than 50% or > or = 50% and less than 75% or > or =
75%. Tree-based modeling did not define a specific threshold percentage PSA
change as a response criterion. For a response of 1-year survival,
sensitivity increased (0.91 v 0.69), but specificity decreased (0.37 v
0.62), with a 75% versus 50% PSA decrease used as classification criterion.
Differences between the area under the receiver-operating curves (ROCs)
with 50% and 75% PSA decreases as threshold values were small. For a
response of 1-year survival, attributable proportions were 0.38 and 0.68,
respectively, with 50% and 75% PSA decreases as threshold values. When
pretreatment variables were assessed by Cox proportional hazards model,
hemoglobin level was the most significant predictor of survival. When
percentage PSA change was included in the model, hemoglobin level remained
the most significant factor, but percentage PSA change was also a weak, but
statistically significant, factor. PSA was a weak, but statistically
significant, predictor of survival in Cox proportional hazards model with
PSA as a time-variant covariate. CONCLUSION: Reduction in PSA level has
weak prognostic significance with respect to survival in HRPC patients,
but, currently, PSA reduction cannot be used as a reliable response
criterion to evaluate treatment efficacy in individual patients.
Prospective, randomized studies, including prospective measurement of other
indices related to symptomatic clinical benefits, are required.

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