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Up-to-Date Long-Term Survival Curves of Patients With Cancer by Period Analysis

From the Department of Epidemiology, German Centre for Research on Ageing, Heidelberg, Germany; Finnish Cancer Registry; and Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.

The work of T.H. was supported by the MaDaMe Project of the Academy of Finland.Address reprint requests to Hermann Brenner, MD, MPH, Department of Epidemiology, German Centre for Research on Ageing, Bergheimer Str 20, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany; email: brenner@ dzfa.uni-heidelberg.de.

PURPOSE: Provision of up-to-date long-term survival curves is an important task of cancer registries. Traditionally, survival curves have been derived for cohorts of patients diagnosed many years ago. Using data of the Finnish Cancer Registry, we provide an empirical assessment of the use of a new method of survival anlysis, denoted period analysis, for deriving more up-to-date survival curves.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: We calculated 10-year relative survival curves actually observed for patients diagnosed with one of the 15 most common forms of cancer in 1983 to 1987, and we compared them with the most up-to-date 10-year relative survival curves that might have been obtained in 1983 to 1987 using either traditional (cohort-wise) or period analysis. We also give the most recent 10-year survival curves obtained by period analysis for the 1993 to 1997 period.

RESULTS: For all forms of cancer, period analysis of the 1983 to 1987 data yielded survival curves that were very close to the survival curves later observed for patients who were newly diagnosed in that period (median and maximum difference of 10-year relative survival estimates: 0.9 and 5.7 percent units, respectively). By contrast, the survival curves obtained by traditional (cohort-wise) survival analysis in 1983 to 1987 would have been much lower for most forms of cancer (median and maximum difference: 5.8 and 18.4 percent units, respectively). The 10-year survival curves for the 1993 to 1997 period are substantially more favorable than previously available, traditionally derived survival curves for most forms of cancer.

CONCLUSION: Period analysis is a useful tool for deriving up-to-date long-term survival curves of patients with cancer.

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