Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 21, Issue 7
(April), 2003: 1232-1237
© 2003 American Society for Clinical Oncology
Prognostic Model for Predicting Survival in Men With Hormone-Refractory Metastatic Prostate Cancer
Susan Halabi,
Eric J. Small,
Philip W. Kantoff,
Michael W. Kattan,
Ellen B. Kaplan,
Nancy A. Dawson,
Ellis G. Levine,
Brent A. Blumenstein,
Nicholas J. Vogelzang
From the Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics and CALGB Statistical Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC; Urologic Oncology Program, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA; The Lank Center for Genitourinary Oncology, Department of Adult Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston MA; Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, and Department of Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY; University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and Section of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Medicine, University of Chicago Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
Address reprint requests to Susan Halabi, PhD, Duke University Medical Center, Box 3958, Durham, NC 27710; email: susan.halabi{at}duke.edu.
Purpose: To develop and validate a model that can be used to predict the overall survival probability among metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer patients (HRPC).
Patients and Methods: Data from six Cancer and Leukemia Group B protocols that enrolled 1,101 patients with metastatic hormone-refractory adenocarcinoma of the prostate during the study period from 1991 to 2001 were pooled. The proportional hazards model was used to develop a multivariable model on the basis of pretreatment factors and to construct a prognostic model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was calculated as a measure of predictive discrimination. Calibration of the model predictions was assessed by comparing the predicted probability with the actual survival probability. An independent data set was used to validate the fitted model.
Results: The final model included the following factors: lactate dehydrogenase, prostate-specific antigen, alkaline phosphatase, Gleason sum, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, and the presence of visceral disease. The area under the ROC curve was 0.68. Patients were classified into one of four risk groups. We observed a good agreement between the observed and predicted survival probabilities for the four risk groups. The observed median survival durations were 7.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.2 to 10.9), 13.4 (95% CI, 9.7 to 26.3), 18.9 (95% CI, 16.2 to 26.3), and 27.2 (95% CI, 21.9 to 42.8) months for the first, second, third, and fourth risk groups, respectively. The corresponding median predicted survival times were 8.8, 13.4, 17.4, and 22.80 for the four risk groups.
Conclusion: This model could be used to predict individual survival probabilities and to stratify metastatic HRPC patients in randomized phase III trials.
Supported in part by grants from the National Cancer Institute (CA31946 and CA 36601), National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, to the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (R. Schilsky).
The contents of this article are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Cancer Institute.
 CiteULike  Complore  Connotea  Del.icio.us  Digg  Facebook  Reddit  Technorati  Twitter What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
|
|
 
H. Ide, E. Kikuchi, H. Kono, H. Nagata, A. Miyajima, K. Nakagawa, T. Ohigashi, J. Nakashima, and M. Oya
Docetaxel in Combination with Prednisolone for Hormone Refractory Prostate Cancer
Jpn. J. Clin. Oncol.,
October 22, 2009;
(2009)
hyp126v2.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. R. Cooperberg, S. Hinotsu, M. Namiki, K. Ito, J. Broering, P. R. Carroll, and H. Akaza
Risk Assessment Among Prostate Cancer Patients Receiving Primary Androgen Deprivation Therapy
J. Clin. Oncol.,
September 10, 2009;
27(26):
4306 - 4313.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. J. Armstrong and P. G. Febbo
Using Surrogate Biomarkers to Predict Clinical Benefit in Men with Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: An Update and Review of the Literature
Oncologist,
August 1, 2009;
14(8):
816 - 827.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. M. Regan, E. K. O'Donnell, W. K. Kelly, S. Halabi, W. Berry, S. Urakami, N. Kikuno, and W. K. Oh
Efficacy of carboplatin-taxane combinations in the management of castration-resistant prostate cancer: a pooled analysis of seven prospective clinical trials
Ann. Onc.,
July 24, 2009;
(2009)
mdp308v1.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Halabi, N. J. Vogelzang, S.-S. Ou, K. Owzar, L. Archer, and E. J. Small
Progression-Free Survival as a Predictor of Overall Survival in Men With Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer
J. Clin. Oncol.,
June 10, 2009;
27(17):
2766 - 2771.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. Concato, D. Jain, E. Uchio, H. Risch, W. W. Li, and C. K. Wells
Molecular Markers and Death From Prostate Cancer
Ann Intern Med,
May 5, 2009;
150(9):
595 - 603.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. L. Harzstark and E. J. Small
Immunotherapeutics in Development for Prostate Cancer
Oncologist,
April 1, 2009;
14(4):
391 - 398.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. A. Willoughby Sr., S. N. Sundar, M. Cheung, A. S. Tin, J. Modiano, and G. L. Firestone
Artemisinin Blocks Prostate Cancer Growth and Cell Cycle Progression by Disrupting Sp1 Interactions with the Cyclin-dependent Kinase-4 (CDK4) Promoter and Inhibiting CDK4 Gene Expression
J. Biol. Chem.,
January 23, 2009;
284(4):
2203 - 2213.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. J. Armstrong, P. Creel, J. Turnbull, C. Moore, T. A. Jaffe, S. Haley, W. Petros, S. Yenser, J. P. Gockerman, D. Sleep, et al.
A Phase I-II Study of Docetaxel and Atrasentan in Men with Castration-Resistant Metastatic Prostate Cancer
Clin. Cancer Res.,
October 1, 2008;
14(19):
6270 - 6276.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Halabi, N. J. Vogelzang, A. B. Kornblith, S.-S. Ou, P. W. Kantoff, N. A. Dawson, and E. J. Small
Pain Predicts Overall Survival in Men With Metastatic Castration-Refractory Prostate Cancer
J. Clin. Oncol.,
May 20, 2008;
26(15):
2544 - 2549.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. L. Gulley, P. M. Arlen, K.-Y. Tsang, J. Yokokawa, C. Palena, D. J. Poole, C. Remondo, V. Cereda, J. L. Jones, M. P. Pazdur, et al.
Pilot Study of Vaccination with Recombinant CEA-MUC-1-TRICOM Poxviral-Based Vaccines in Patients with Metastatic Carcinoma
Clin. Cancer Res.,
May 15, 2008;
14(10):
3060 - 3069.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. Schlom, J. L. Gulley, and P. M. Arlen
Paradigm Shifts in Cancer Vaccine Therapy
Experimental Biology and Medicine,
May 1, 2008;
233(5):
522 - 534.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
H. I. Scher, S. Halabi, I. Tannock, M. Morris, C. N. Sternberg, M. A. Carducci, M. A. Eisenberger, C. Higano, G. J. Bubley, R. Dreicer, et al.
Design and End Points of Clinical Trials for Patients With Progressive Prostate Cancer and Castrate Levels of Testosterone: Recommendations of the Prostate Cancer Clinical Trials Working Group
J. Clin. Oncol.,
March 1, 2008;
26(7):
1148 - 1159.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Tomioka, M. Shimbo, Y. Amiya, H. Nakatsu, S. Murakami, and J. Shimazaki
Outcome of Patients with Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer: Prognostic Significance of Prostate-Specific Antigen-Doubling Time and Nadir Prostate-Specific Antigen
Jpn. J. Clin. Oncol.,
January 1, 2008;
38(1):
36 - 42.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. C. Danila, G. Heller, G. A. Gignac, R. Gonzalez-Espinoza, A. Anand, E. Tanaka, H. Lilja, L. Schwartz, S. Larson, M. Fleisher, et al.
Circulating Tumor Cell Number and Prognosis in Progressive Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer
Clin. Cancer Res.,
December 1, 2007;
13(23):
7053 - 7058.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. J. Armstrong, E. S. Garrett-Mayer, Y.-C. O. Yang, R. de Wit, I. F. Tannock, and M. Eisenberger
A Contemporary Prognostic Nomogram for Men with Hormone-Refractory Metastatic Prostate Cancer: A TAX327 Study Analysis
Clin. Cancer Res.,
November 1, 2007;
13(21):
6396 - 6403.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. J. Armstrong, E. Garrett-Mayer, Y.-C. Ou Yang, M. A. Carducci, I. Tannock, R. de Wit, and M. Eisenberger
Prostate-Specific Antigen and Pain Surrogacy Analysis in Metastatic Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer
J. Clin. Oncol.,
September 1, 2007;
25(25):
3965 - 3970.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G. Heller, M. W. Kattan, and H. I. Scher
Improving the Decision to Pursue a Phase 3 Clinical Trial by Adjusting for Patient-Specific Factors in Evaluating Phase 2 Treatment Efficacy Data
Med Decis Making,
August 1, 2007;
27(4):
380 - 386.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. M. K. Pulukuri and J. S. Rao
Small Interfering RNA Directed Reversal of Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Demethylation Inhibits Prostate Tumor Growth and Metastasis
Cancer Res.,
July 15, 2007;
67(14):
6637 - 6646.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
E. J. Small, N. Sacks, J. Nemunaitis, W. J. Urba, E. Dula, A. S. Centeno, W. G. Nelson, D. Ando, C. Howard, F. Borellini, et al.
Granulocyte Macrophage Colony-Stimulating Factor-Secreting Allogeneic Cellular Immunotherapy for Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer
Clin. Cancer Res.,
July 1, 2007;
13(13):
3883 - 3891.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R. Sposto, W. B. London, and T. A. Alonzo
Criteria for Optimizing Prognostic Risk Groups in Pediatric Cancer: Analysis of Data From the Children's Oncology Group
J. Clin. Oncol.,
May 20, 2007;
25(15):
2070 - 2077.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. J. Ryan, S. Halabi, S.-S. Ou, N. J. Vogelzang, P. Kantoff, E. J. Small, and for the Cancer and Leukemia Group B
Adrenal Androgen Levels as Predictors of Outcome in Prostate Cancer Patients Treated with Ketoconazole Plus Antiandrogen Withdrawal: Results from a Cancer and Leukemia Group B Study
Clin. Cancer Res.,
April 1, 2007;
13(7):
2030 - 2037.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. M. K. Pulukuri, N. Estes, J. Patel, and J. S. Rao
Demethylation-Linked Activation of Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Is Involved in Progression of Prostate Cancer
Cancer Res.,
February 1, 2007;
67(3):
930 - 939.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
E. J. Small, P. F. Schellhammer, C. S. Higano, C. H. Redfern, J. J. Nemunaitis, F. H. Valone, S. S. Verjee, L. A. Jones, and R. M. Hershberg
Placebo-Controlled Phase III Trial of Immunologic Therapy with Sipuleucel-T (APC8015) in Patients with Metastatic, Asymptomatic Hormone Refractory Prostate Cancer
J. Clin. Oncol.,
July 1, 2006;
24(19):
3089 - 3094.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R. J. Cook, R. Coleman, J. Brown, A. Lipton, P. Major, Y. J. Hei, F. Saad, and M. R. Smith
Markers of bone metabolism and survival in men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer.
Clin. Cancer Res.,
June 1, 2006;
12(11):
3361 - 3367.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
E. J. Small, S. Halabi, P. Kantoff, A. D'Amico, W. Stadler, W. K. Kelley, J. Mohler, D. Bajorin, and N. J. Vogelzang
Activities and accomplishments of the cancer and leukemia group B genitourinary committee.
Clin. Cancer Res.,
June 1, 2006;
12(11):
3596s - 3600s.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
H. J. Cohen and H. B. Muss
The Cancer and Leukemia Group B Cancer in the Elderly Committee: Addressing a Major Cancer Need.
Clin. Cancer Res.,
June 1, 2006;
12(11):
3606s - 3611s.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. A. Wagmiller, J. J. Griggs, A. W. Dick, and D. M. Sahasrabudhe
Individualized Strategy for Dosing Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone Agonists for Androgen-Independent Prostate Cancer: Identification of Outcomes and Costs
J. Oncol. Pract,
March 1, 2006;
2(2):
57 - 66.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. J. Ryan and M. Eisenberger
Chemotherapy for Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer: Now It's a Question of "When?"
J. Clin. Oncol.,
November 10, 2005;
23(32):
8242 - 8246.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T. P.F. Gade, W. Hassen, E. Santos, G. Gunset, A. Saudemont, M. C. Gong, R. Brentjens, X.-S. Zhong, M. Stephan, J. Stefanski, et al.
Targeted Elimination of Prostate Cancer by Genetically Directed Human T Lymphocytes
Cancer Res.,
October 1, 2005;
65(19):
9080 - 9088.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R. W. Ross, J. Manola, K. Hennessy, M. Galsky, H. Scher, E. Small, W. K. Kelly, and P. W. Kantoff
Prognostic Significance of Baseline Reverse Transcriptase-PCR for Prostate-Specific Antigen in Men with Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer Treated with Chemotherapy
Clin. Cancer Res.,
July 15, 2005;
11(14):
5195 - 5198.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Halabi, E. J. Small, and N. J. Vogelzang
Elevated Body Mass Index Predicts for Longer Overall Survival Duration in Men With Metastatic Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer
J. Clin. Oncol.,
April 1, 2005;
23(10):
2434 - 2435.
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A Berruti, A Mosca, M Tucci, C Terrone, M Torta, R Tarabuzzi, L Russo, C Cracco, E Bollito, R M Scarpa, et al.
Independent prognostic role of circulating chromogranin A in prostate cancer patients with hormone-refractory disease
Endocr. Relat. Cancer,
March 1, 2005;
12(1):
109 - 117.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. J. George, S. Halabi, T. F. Shepard, B. Sanford, N. J. Vogelzang, E. J. Small, and P. W. Kantoff
The Prognostic Significance of Plasma Interleukin-6 Levels in Patients with Metastatic Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer: Results from Cancer and Leukemia Group B 9480
Clin. Cancer Res.,
March 1, 2005;
11(5):
1815 - 1820.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
L. Collette, G. van Andel, A. Bottomley, G. O.N. Oosterhof, W. Albrecht, T. M. de Reijke, and S. D. Fossa
Is Baseline Quality of Life Useful for Predicting Survival With Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer? A Pooled Analysis of Three Studies of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Genitourinary Group
J. Clin. Oncol.,
October 1, 2004;
22(19):
3877 - 3885.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
E. J. Small, S. Halabi, N. A. Dawson, W. M. Stadler, B. I. Rini, J. Picus, P. Gable, F. M. Torti, E. Kaplan, and N. J. Vogelzang
Antiandrogen Withdrawal Alone or in Combination With Ketoconazole in Androgen-Independent Prostate Cancer Patients: A Phase III Trial (CALGB 9583)
J. Clin. Oncol.,
March 15, 2004;
22(6):
1025 - 1033.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T. D. Shanafelt, S. M. Geyer, and N. E. Kay
Prognosis at diagnosis: integrating molecular biologic insights into clinical practice for patients with CLL
Blood,
February 15, 2004;
103(4):
1202 - 1210.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
