Originally published as JCO Early Release 10.1200/JCO.2006.08.8013 on July 30 2007

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Doctor, What Are My Chances of Having a Positive Sentinel Node? A Validated Nomogram for Risk Estimation

José Luiz B. Bevilacqua, Michael W. Kattan, Jane V. Fey, Hiram S. Cody, III, Patrick I. Borgen, Kimberly J. Van Zee

From the Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY; the Department of Quantitative Health Sciences Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH; and the Departmento de Cirurgia, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Address reprint requests to Kimberly J. Van Zee, MS, MD, FACS, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 1275 York Ave, MRI 1026, New York, NY 10021; e-mail: vanzeek{at}mskcc.org

Purpose Lymph node metastasis is a multifactorial event. Several variables have been described as predictors of lymph node metastasis in breast cancer. However, it is difficult to apply these data—usually expressed as odds ratios—to calculate the probability of sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis for a specific patient. We developed a user-friendly prediction model (nomogram) based on a large data set to assist in predicting the presence of SLN metastasis.

Patients and Methods Clinical and pathologic features of 3,786 sequential SLN biopsy procedures were assessed with multivariable logistic regression to predict the presence of SLN metastasis in breast cancer. The model was subsequently applied to 1,545 sequential SLN biopsies. A nomogram was created from the logistic regression model. A computerized version of the nomogram was developed and is available on the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (New York, NY) Web site.

Results Age, tumor size, tumor type, lymphovascular invasion, tumor location, multifocality, and estrogen and progesterone receptors were associated with SLN metastasis in multivariate analysis. The nomogram was accurate and discriminating, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.754 when applied to the validation group.

Conclusion Newly diagnosed breast cancer patients are increasingly interested in information about their disease. This nomogram is a useful tool that helps physicians and patients to accurately predict the likelihood of SLN metastasis.

published online ahead of print at www.jco.org on July 30, 2007.

Authors’ disclosures of potential conflicts of interest and author contributions are found at the end of this article.

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