Originally published as JCO Early Release 10.1200/JCO.2008.20.8983 on April 29 2009

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Future of Cancer Incidence in the United States: Burdens Upon an Aging, Changing Nation

From the Radiation Oncology Flight, Wilford Hall Medical Center, Lackland Air Force Base; Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX; and the Department of Medical Oncology, City of Hope Cancer Center, Duarte, CA.

Corresponding author: Benjamin Smith, MD, 2200 Bergquist Dr, Ste #1, Lackland AFB, TX 78236; e-mail: bensmith{at}alumni.rice.edu.

Purpose By 2030, the United States' population will increase to approximately 365 million, including 72 million older adults (age 65 years) and 157 million minority individuals. Although cancer incidence varies by age and race, the impact of demographic changes on cancer incidence has not been fully characterized. We sought to estimate the number of cancer patients diagnosed in the United States through 2030 by age and race.

Methods Current demographic-specific cancer incidence rates were calculated using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. Population projections from the Census Bureau were used to project future cancer incidence through 2030.

Results From 2010 to 2030, the total projected cancer incidence will increase by approximately 45%, from 1.6 million in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2030. This increase is driven by cancer diagnosed in older adults and minorities. A 67% increase in cancer incidence is anticipated for older adults, compared with an 11% increase for younger adults. A 99% increase is anticipated for minorities, compared with a 31% increase for whites. From 2010 to 2030, the percentage of all cancers diagnosed in older adults will increase from 61% to 70%, and the percentage of all cancers diagnosed in minorities will increase from 21% to 28%.

Conclusion Demographic changes in the United States will result in a marked increase in the number of cancer diagnoses over the next 20 years. Continued efforts are needed to improve cancer care for older adults and minorities.

Presented in part at the 22nd San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium in December 10-14, 2008.

Authors' disclosures of potential conflicts of interest and author contributions are found at the end of this article.

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