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© 1999 American Society for Clinical Oncology Prognostic Factors for the Outcome of Chemotherapy in Advanced Soft Tissue Sarcoma: An Analysis of 2,185 Patients Treated With Anthracycline-Containing First-Line RegimensA European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Soft Tissue and Bone Sarcoma Group StudyFrom the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Data Center, Brussels, Belgium; Universitair Ziekenhuis Gasthuisberg, Leuven, Belgium; Rotterdam Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Righospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark; Christie Hospital, Manchester, United Kingdom; Antoni van Leeuwenhoekhuis, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Istituto Tumori, Milan, Italy; Hospital General de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain; and Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif, France. Address reprint requests to Martine Van Glabbeke, EORTC Data Center, avenue Mounier 83, bte 11, 1200 Bruxelles, Belgium; Email mvg{at}eortc.be
PURPOSE: A total of 2,185 patients with advanced soft tissue sarcomas who had been treated in seven clinical trials investigating the use of doxorubicin- or epirubicin-containing regimens as first-line chemotherapy were studied in this prognostic-factor analysis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Overall survival time (median, 51 weeks) and response to chemotherapy (26% complete response or partial response) were the two end points. The cofactors were sex; age; performance status; prior therapies; the presence of locoregional or recurrent disease; lung, liver, and bone metastases at the time of entry onto the trial; long time period between the initial diagnosis of sarcoma and entry onto the study; and histologic type and grade.
RESULTS: Univariate analyses showed (a) a significant, favorable influence of good performance status, young age, and absence of liver metastases on both survival time and response rate, (b) a significant, favorable influence of low histopathologic disease grade on survival time, despite a significantly lower response rate, (c) increased survival time for patients with a long time period between the initial diagnosis of sarcoma and entry onto the study, despite equivalent response rates, and (d) increased survival time with liposarcoma or synovial sarcoma, a decreased survival time with malignant fibrous histiocytoma, a lower response rate with leiomyosarcoma, and a higher response rate with liposarcoma (P < .05 for all log-rank and CONCLUSION: This analysis demonstrates that for advanced soft tissue sarcoma, response to chemotherapy is not predicted by the same factors as is overall survival time. This needs to be taken into account in the interpretation of trials assessing the value of new agents for this disease on the basis of response to treatment.
FOR MORE THAN 20 YEARS, the Soft Tissue and Bone Sarcoma Group (STBSG) of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) has been investigating different chemotherapy regimens for advanced and metastatic soft tissue sarcomas. In chemotherapy-naive patients with advanced disease (who had either relapsed after primary tumor surgery and/or radiotherapy or presented with inoperable or metastatic disease), successive clinical trials were performed that investigated a series of doxorubicin- or epirubicin-containing regimens (Table 1). None of the randomized trials has demonstrated the superiority of any of the investigated regimens, either in terms of response to chemotherapy or in terms of survival.1-7 The data from all trials have been managed at the EORTC Data Center, resulting in the accumulation of an homogeneous database for more than 2,000 prospectively recruited patients. This accumulation presented a unique opportunity to conduct a retrospective analysis of prognostic factors influencing response to chemotherapy and overall survival time. Although the prognosis of patients with primary disease, as well as that of patients amenable to metastasectomy, had previously been studied, no data are currently available from large series to predict the duration of survival and probability of response to chemotherapy of patients with advanced disease.
Patients Patients who had been treated in seven studies investigating doxorubicin- or epirubicin-containing regimens as a mode of first-line chemotherapy were included in this prognostic-factor analysis. The therapeutic regimens are described in Table 1.
End Points of the Analysis Survival time was computed from the date of randomization (in the randomized trials) or from the date of prospective registration (in the nonrandomized trials) to the date of death. Patients who were alive at the last follow-up date were censored. Response to chemotherapy was evaluated according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria8 in all trials. Complete responses and partial responses were externally reviewed and validated on the basis of source documents. Response to therapy was analyzed as a binary variable: patients who achieved a complete or partial response were considered "responders," and patients with stable disease or progression were considered "failures."
Sample Size
Investigated Cofactors Data on the extent and localization of the disease included the presence of locoregional disease or local recurrence, as well as lung, liver, and bone metastases. Chest radiography, bone scans, and liver scans were mandatory at the time of entry onto all trials. Histologic subtype and histopathologic grade, as assessed by a panel of reference pathologists, were preferred over the use of local diagnosis, to ensure the consistency and homogeneity of the data. For practical reasons, only 70% of the cases could be reviewed. Analyses including these factors are therefore based on the subset of reviewed cases. Histologic subtypes were recoded as multiple binary variables.
Statistical Methods The results presented in this article are based on unadjusted analyses of categorical variables. The final multivariate models were later adjusted by therapeutic regimen and by study, which did not change any conclusion. Replacement of categorized variables by original continuous variables (age, time lapse since diagnosis) also did not change any conclusion.
In the series of 2,185 patients with follow-up data, the median survival time was 51 weeks. The overall survival time for all patients is shown in Fig 1. Survival curves for the therapeutic arms of the different studies were all superimposable. Comparison of the therapeutic arms in all randomized trials showed no significant differences (Table 2).
In the series of 1,922 patients who were assessable for response, an overall response rate of 26% was observed. This response rate varied largely from one study to the other, but, with the exception of one study, no statistically significant difference was observed between the randomized therapeutic arms in any of the studies (Table 2). These findings are in agreement with the individual study results from the original publications, which were based on eligible patients.1-7
Univariate Analysis of Survival Time
Multivariate Analysis of Survival Time
The impact of each factor may be quantified by the increase in the "hazard ratio" (immediate risk of death) of two successive patient categories (ie, in performance status, PS 1 compared with PS 0). According to the final Cox model, this risk increased by 51.5% for performance status categories, 46.1% for liver involvement, 24% for histopathologic grade categories, and 10.7% for age categories and decreased by 7.9% for elapsed time categories. The liposarcoma and malignant fibrous histiocytoma categories dropped out of the multivariate models when tumor grade was included. Indeed, these factors are correlated. The overall series included 13% of grade 1 tumors, 34% of grade 2 tumors, and 53% of grade 3 tumors. For liposarcoma, these figures were 39%, 34%, and 28%, respectively. For malignant fibrous histiocytoma, these figures were 8%, 24%, and 68%, respectively.
The synovial sarcoma category included only 1% of patients with liver involvement (v 19% in other histologic categories and 14% if the leiomyosarcoma category is excluded), as well as a high proportion (58%) of patients under 40 years of age (v 25% in other histologic categories). This factor dropped out of the final model, which included age and liver involvement. The overall survival for all independent prognostic subgroups is shown in Figs
Univariate Analysis of Response Rate
Multivariate Analysis of Response Rate
Identification of prognostic factors in soft tissue sarcoma has been a field of extensive research in this rare group of malignant diseases, but it was primarily limited to the definition of staging systems for patients presenting for the first time with this disease.14-26 The staging systems used in these analyses were usually based on a combination of clinical and histopathologic factors. Universally agreed-upon clinical prognostic factors include tumor size and quality of surgery (which obviously depends on tumor localization), whereas proposed histopathologic grading systems are usually based on mitotic count, tumor necrosis, and degree of differentiation.14 In most of the studies, histopathologic grade was the most important prognostic factor, but Gaynor et al20 also demonstrated that the prognostic value of this factor disappeared beyond 18 months. On behalf of the EORTCSoft Tissue and Bone Sarcoma Group, van Unnik et al14 have proposed a prognostic index, which is based on tumor size, mitotic count, and necrosis. The prognostic factors for patients presenting with inoperable or metastatic disease and for patients developing metastases after surgery and/or radiotherapy may be different. So far, the prognostic factors for advanced and recurring cases have only been studied in the highly select population of patients amenable to metastasectomy.27-30 In patients with advanced sarcomas who were not candidates for surgery, some data are available from studies that investigated specific chemotherapy regimens,1,31-33 but no large-scale analysis has been conducted so far. Our unique series of over 2,000 patients has been used to provide a model that predicts the probability of response to chemotherapy and the overall survival time in this population. Despite the fact that age and performance status are generally not reported as prognostic factors for patients with primary disease, it is not surprising that these factors correlate with survival time in patients with advanced disease. This was also reported by Borden et al.31 In our study, we have also demonstrated that age is highly predictive for response to first-line chemotherapy, but performance status does not add predictive information to the model. The absence of significant prognostic value for factors related to the nature and extent of previous therapy suggests that once a patient presents with inoperable advanced soft tissue sarcoma, prior modes of therapy do not have any further impact on the outcome. Liver metastases had a very significant adverse predictive value for both response and survival. This might be explained by two hypotheses: (1) liver metastases are a sign of advanced disease, which explains the poor prognosis of those patients, or (2) the presence of liver metastases in itself is a poor prognostic factor, regardless of the degree of advancement of the disease, because liver metastases are apparently less chemosensitive than other lesions.33 Both hypotheses need to be explored further. Patients with a long time lapse since the first diagnosis of sarcoma had a better survival time than did patients recently diagnosed. This has also been reported with regard to other types of tumors, for which a long previous "disease-free survival" predicts a long survival time when patients relapse. Patients with a high histopathologic grade of disease had a significantly worse survival time than did the others, despite a significantly higher response rate. This is compatible with the recognition that high-grade tumors are more chemosensitive, but responses tend to be of short duration in these patients and are often followed by rapid progression. The univariate analysis demonstrated the prognostic importance of histologic subtype. Patients with liposarcoma and synovial sarcoma had a significantly better survival time than did patients with other cell types, whereas patients with malignant fibrous histiocytoma had a worse survival time. Liposarcoma patients had a higher response rate, and leiomyosarcoma patients had a lower response rate. According to our analysis, liposarcoma appears in the form of chemosensitive tumors with a good prognosis of survival. The distribution of tumor grades in this histologic subtype explains the favorable survival time but is in contrast with the high response rate. Other histopathologic variables dropped out of the multivariate models, but the analysis presented here clarifies these findings on the basis of their correlation with other prognostic factors. The lower probability of response to chemotherapy in leiomyosarcoma patients, which is in contrast with previously reported data,31,33 is linked to the increased frequency of liver metastases in these patients. Correlation of these two factors could be a result of the high proportion of abdominal leiomyosarcoma cases in our series, which have a greater propensity for liver metastases. Because our data are up to 20 years old, the histologic entity of "gastrointestinal stromal sarcoma" had not been identified at the time of diagnosis of most of these patients, and these cases are probably included as leiomyosarcomas in our series. Unfortunately, we have not systematically recorded the site of origin of sarcoma in all trials and therefore cannot confirm this hypothesis. More recent data will enable us to study this issue further. The decreased survival time in cases of malignant fibrous histiocytoma is obviously linked to the distribution of the histopathologic grades of these tumors. Synovial sarcoma usually involves young patients without liver metastases, which explains their good survival time. Finally, the overall survival time curve shows that a small proportion of patients is still surviving after 5 years and suggests that some of these patients may have been cured by chemotherapy. In conclusion, this analysis demonstrates that for advanced soft tissue sarcomas, the probability of achieving response to chemotherapy is not predicted by the same factors as in overall survival time. While young age and the absence of liver metastases significantly affect both end points in a favorable way, low histopathologic grade has a favorable impact on survival time and an adverse impact on response rate. This should be taken into account in the interpretation of trials of new therapeutic agents in which the activity results are based on response. The study also demonstrates the prognostic value of histologic subtypes of sarcoma. So far, we have been unable to confirm whether these factors add independent prognostic information to the described models, except for cases of liposarcoma, but we could demonstrate why they affected overall survival time and response to chemotherapy. Further investigations of the correlation between the histologic subtype, the site of origin of the disease, and the sites of the metastases should provide a better understanding of the behavior of the different histologic subtypes.
The studies that form the basis of this work were supported by the Prix Pierre Bardoux.
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Copyright © 1999 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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