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Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 19, Issue 7 (April), 2001: 2010-2019
© 2001 American Society for Clinical Oncology

S-Phase Fraction and Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Are Better Markers for Distant Recurrences Than Nottingham Prognostic Index and Histologic Grade in a Prospective Study of Premenopausal Lymph Node–Negative Breast Cancer

By P. Malmström, P-O. Bendahl, P. Boiesen, N. Brünner, I. Idvall, M. Fernö, for the South Sweden Breast Cancer Group

From the Jubileum Institute, Department of Oncology, and Department of Pathology and Cytology, Lund University Hospital, Lund; Department of Pathology, Helsingborg Hospital, Helsingborg, Sweden; and Finsen Laboratory, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.

Address reprint requests to Per Malmström, MD, Department of Oncology, Lund University Hospital, SE-221 85 Lund, Sweden; email: Per.Malmstrom{at}onk.lu.se


    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
PURPOSE: Histologic grade, Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) status, and tumor size have previously been shown to be important prognostic indicators for distant recurrence of breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic value of these factors with flow cytometric S-phase fraction (SPF), urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA), and plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) in premenopausal patients with lymph node–negative breast cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: In 237 consecutive premenopausal patients with lymph node–negative breast cancer and freshly frozen tumor material available, SPF, ER and PgR status, uPA and its inhibitor PAI-1, histologic grade, and NPI were evaluated.

RESULTS: SPF was univariately the most powerful prognostic factor for distant recurrence, followed by uPA, histologic grade, PgR, age, ER, NPI, and PAI-1, the latter being nonsignificant. Multivariate analysis revealed that neither NPI nor histologic grade was significant after adjustment for SPF, a fact that may be explained by the strong association between these factors. uPA was, however, an independent prognostic factor in addition to SPF, NPI, or histologic grade.

CONCLUSION: In this prospective study, SPF and uPA were found to be independent prognostic factors in premenopausal women with lymph node–negative breast cancer. We suggest that SPF, if performed under standardized conditions, can replace histologic grade as a selection instrument for adjuvant medical treatment. The value of the combination of SPF and uPA needs to be confirmed in an independent prospective trial.


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
THE NOTTINGHAM Prognostic Index (NPI), developed on the basis of histologic grade, tumor size, and lymph node status, is one of the most frequently used classification systems for prognostic considerations in breast cancer.1-5 Because of its simplicity and availability, NPI is suitable for routine clinical use.

In a previous study on lymph node–negative breast cancer patients from southern Sweden, flow cytometric S-phase fraction (SPF), tumor size, and progesterone receptor status (PgR) were found to be useful prognostic indicators for selection of patients with high frequency of early relapse.6 The former study was performed retrospectively, and as a consequence there was a need for a prospective investigation in order to confirm the prognostic importance of these factors. Another reason for a new study was the introduction, since the previous study, of public mammographic screening, influencing median patient age and breast tumor size at diagnosis. New cell biologic prognostic factors have also been identified, among which factors of the urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA) system seem to be some of the most significant. uPA is involved in the degradation of extracellular matrix during tumor cell invasion.7-9 It converts plasminogen to plasmin, which degrades components of the stroma.7 Furthermore, the effect of uPA is modulated by two inhibitors, plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) and type 2 (PAI-2).10 Since the first results reported by Duffy et al in 1988, showing uPA to be a prognostic factor in breast cancer,11 several other groups have confirmed these results.12-16 Also, the inhibitors PAI-1 and PAI-2 have been demonstrated to be of prognostic significance in breast cancer, with high PAI-1 and low PAI-2 being associated with shorter survival.15,17-21

A prospective study including 237 premenopausal patients with lymph node–negative breast cancer has been carried out in the southern health care region in Sweden. The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established prognostic factors, ie, histologic grade, NPI, estrogen receptor (ER) and PgR, and tumor size with SPF, uPA, and its inhibitor PAI-1 in premenopausal patients with lymph node–negative breast cancer.


    PATIENTS AND METHODS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
Patients
In the South Swedish Breast Cancer Registry during the period September 1, 1991, to December 7, 1994, 237 premenopausal patients with breast cancer without lymph node metastases and with frozen tumor tissue sent to the research department in Lund were identified. ER, PgR, and SPF analyses were performed routinely every week in accordance with the regional treatment program of the South Sweden Breast Cancer Group. The study was approved by the ethics committee of Lund University Hospital. The study material constitutes 75% of the total premenopausal lymph node–negative breast cancer patient population in South Sweden with tumors sufficiently large to permit a perioperative sample for laboratory analysis, and 60% of all premenopausal patients with lymph node–negative breast cancer during this period.

All patients underwent radical operation for early breast cancer with either a standardized sector resection or a modified radical mastectomy. Dissection of levels 1 and 2 of the axilla was performed in all patients. A median number of nine nodes were identified in the resected axillary specimen. Patients treated with breast-conserving surgery were randomized to either postoperative radiotherapy 50 Gy in 25 fractions to the remaining breast parenchyma or to no further treatment in a Swedish multicenter trial evaluating postoperative radiotherapy. Radiotherapy, 50 Gy in 25 fractions, was given to seven patients after mastectomy because of narrow margins at surgery. Adjuvant medical treatment was given to 29 patients ( Table 1). Patients were examined once yearly at the departments of surgery and/or oncology. Hospital records of all patients were reviewed from March to June 1998. Median follow-up for the 200 patients alive without signs of distant recurrence was 48 months (range, 4 to 72).


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Table 1. Characteristics of 237 Premenopausal Patients With Node-Negative Breast Cancer
 
NPI and Histologic Grade
NPI scores were calculated according to Galea et al2: NPI = 0.2 x tumor size + lymph node stage + histologic grade, where size is measured in centimeters; lymph node stage 1 is lymph node–negative, stage 2 is one to three positive lymph nodes, stage 3 is >= four positive lymph nodes; and the scoring of histologic grade is 1 to 3 (see below). For prognostic considerations, NPI was categorized into three groups2: low, NPI <= 3.4; intermediate, 3.4 less than NPI <= 5.4; and high, NPI more than 5.4. In the present study of lymph node–negative breast cancer, no case with NPI above 5.4 was identified.

The histologic grade used in this index was evaluated according to Elston and Ellis.1 The grading procedure consisted of judgment of tubule formation, nuclear pleomorphism, and mitotic count. The number of mitoses was counted in 10 high-power fields, and the results were adjusted to the area of the microscopic field. Each of the three morphologic features, tubules, nuclear pleomorphism, and number of mitoses, was given a score of 1 to 3 points. The overall histologic grade was obtained by adding the score of each characteristic, giving a possible total score of 3 to 9 points. The histologic grade allocation was as follows: grade 1, 3 to 5 points; grade 2, 6 to 7 points; and grade 3, 8 to 9 points.

Before the present investigation, a reproducibility study of histologic grading, according to Elston and Ellis,1 of 93 invasive breast carcinomas was performed by seven pathologists in South Sweden Health Care Region, all with long experience in breast cancer morphology. Histologic grading was performed without any knowledge of patient history. The reproducibility was found to be moderate, with a kappa of 0.54.22 After termination of the reproducibility study, the same seven pathologists reevaluated and graded the 237 tumor specimens of this study. Each pathologist evaluated one seventh of the samples. Ten preparations were excluded because of poor staining. The same principles for processing of specimens and grading were adhered to in the reproducibility study and in the present study. Thus, all breast cancer specimens were routinely processed, fixed in formalin, embedded in paraffin, cut in 5-µm-thick sections, and stained with hematoxylin and eosin.

Analytic Methods
Fresh tumor material from all patients was obtained perioperatively, sent on dry ice, and stored at the research laboratory, Department of Oncology, Lund. ER and PgR content were measured routinely every week with enzyme immunoassay (EIA) according to kit instructions (Abbott Laboratories, Diagnostic Division, Chicago, IL). The buffer used for cytosol extraction contained Tris-HCl 10 mmol/L, EDTA 1.5 mmol/L, Na2Mo04 5.0 mmol/L, and monothioglycerol 1.0 mmol/L, giving a pH of 7.4 (final concentration). Cytosol samples with receptor content >= 25 fmol/mg protein were classified as ER or PgR positive and samples with values below this level as ER or PgR negative.23

Flow cytometry (FCM) DNA analysis was also performed routinely every week in an Ortho-Cytotron Absolute (Ortho Diagnostic Systems, Raritan, NJ) after staining with propidium iodide.24 In accordance with the Convention of Nomenclature for DNA Cytometry,25 ploidy status was defined as follows: one DNA cell population equals diploid, and two or more cell populations equal nondiploid. In 90% (213 of 237) of the FCM DNA histograms it was possible to reliably estimate the percentage of nuclei corresponding to the SPF. A planimetric method was used.26 Samples with an SPF >= 12% were classified as high SPF, and values below this level as low SPF.6

Residual cytosol samples from steroid receptor analysis were stored at -70°C. In the present study, these cytosols were used for uPA and PAI-1 analyses. uPA was analyzed with luminometric immunoassay (AB Sangtec Medical, Bromma, Sweden) and PAI-1 with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Monozyme, Copenhagen, Denmark) according to kit instructions. Since the aim was to identify a high-risk group roughly corresponding to the long-run recurrence rate in this patient group, the upper tertile was chosen as the cutoff for both uPA (0.23 ng/mg protein) and PAI-1 (0.91 ng/mg protein).

Statistics
In this study, we have focused on the prognostic value of uPA and PAI-1 in relation to that of more established prognostic factors such as tumor size, NPI, histologic grade, SPF, and receptor content. Distant disease-free survival (DDFS) was chosen as the primary end point, since only 17 patients had died during the study period. Median follow-up was defined as median follow-up for those patients still alive and free from distant recurrence at the latest hospital visit. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate distant recurrence-free survival, and the log-rank test was used to compare survival in different strata. The survival curves were continued as long as at least five patients remained at risk.27 The Cox proportional hazards model was also used for estimation of univariate hazard ratios (HRs). Proportional hazards assumptions were checked both graphically and using Schoenfeld’s test.28 Deviations from the assumption motivated the complementary analysis using separate models for two disjoint time intervals. All factors were used as dichotomous covariates in the statistical analysis. The only exception was age, which was also analyzed as a continuous variable. Cutoff values were chosen before statistical analysis. Standard cutoffs were used for established prognostic factors and were the same as for previously published patient series.6 For uPA and PAI-1, the upper tertile was chosen. Associations between the factors were analyzed using Fisher’s exact test and, unless otherwise stated, P < .05 was considered as significant. All P values correspond to two-sided tests. Stata 6.0 (Sata Corp, College Station, TX) was used for all the statistical analyses.


    RESULTS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
Patient and Tumor Characteristics
Characteristics of the 237 patients studied are listed in Table 1. During the follow-up period, locoregional recurrences were diagnosed in 29 patients. Of these, 18 patients had breast recurrences, eight had chest wall recurrences, and three had recurrences both locoregionally and in the breast parenchyma. Prognostic indicators for local recurrences will be reported elsewhere. Distant metastases were recorded in 36 patients. DDFS was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI], 85% to 93%) at 3 years. The comparatively favorable prognosis, as indicated by the 3-year DDFS of this patient group with small tumors and without lymph node metastases, was also reflected by evaluated tumor characteristics ( Table 2).


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Table 2. Tumor Biologic Characteristics in 237 Premenopausal Patients With Lymph Node–Negative Breast Cancer
 
High uPA was associated with high SPF, histologic grade 3, high PAI-1, nondiploidy, ER negativity, and intermediate NPI, whereas high PAI-1 values were associated with the same factors as high uPA but also weakly with PgR negativity and large tumor size ( Table 3). The Spearman rank correlation coefficient between uPA and PAI-1 values was .59.


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Table 3. Associations Between uPA/PAI-1 and Other Prognostic Factors in Premenopausal Women With Lymph Node–Negative Breast Cancer
 
DDFS
Univariate analyses. DDFS at 3 years for low- and high-risk groups, respectively, were SPF 94% and 70%, uPA 95% and 79%, PAI-1 93% and 84%, histologic grade 94% and 79%, and NPI 94% and 83% ( Fig 1). The strongest univariate prognostic factor for DDFS was SPF, followed by uPA, histologic grade, PgR, age, ER, and NPI. No significant prognostic impact of ploidy, tumor size, and PAI-1 was observed ( Table 4). The HRs listed in Table 4 were calculated under the assumption of proportional hazards. This assumption could, however, be rejected at the 5% level by Schoenfeld’s test28 for six of the 10 factors listed in Table 4. Therefore, separate Cox models were fitted to the interval 0 to 3 years after primary surgery and the subsequent 3-year period. The univariately strongest prognostic factors, SPF, uPA, PgR, and histologic grade, were all highly significant (P < .001), with HRs from 4 to 6, in the first interval, but far from significant, with HRs close to 1, in the second interval. High PAI-1 was associated with a marginally significant increased risk in the first interval (HR = 2.6, P = .03). This pattern was reversed in the second interval (HR = 0.23, P = .16).



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Fig 1. Distant disease-free survival of 237 premenopausal patients with lymph node–negative breast cancer in relation to (A) histologic grade, (B) NPI, (C) SPF, (D) uPA, and (E) PAI-1.

 

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Table 4. Univariate Analysis of Prognostic Factors for DDFS of Premenopausal Women With Lymph Node–Negative Breast Cancer
 
Multivariate analyses. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of uPA and PAI-1 in relation to that of known prognostic factors (eg, SPF, NPI, and histologic grade). Two bivariate analyses, one including SPF and NPI, and the other including SPF and histologic grade, revealed that the prognostic value of NPI (HR = 1.0, P = .92) and histologic grade (HR = 1.3, P = .56) were far from independent of that of SPF when including NPI (HR = 3.6, P = .002) and when including histologic grade (HR = 3.0, P = .03). These findings can be explained by the strong association between SPF and NPI/histologic grade. The risk status (high v low) on the basis of SPF was the same as that derived from NPI for 74% of the patients in the study and for 80% of the patients with distant recurrence. The corresponding figures for SPF and histologic grade were 87% and 86%, respectively. As a consequence, the additional prognostic value of uPA and PAI-1 was evaluated in three separate models on the basis of either SPF, NPI, or histologic grade. Because of the limited number of events, we primarily evaluated uPA and PAI-1 in simpler models, only including three factors. uPA but not PAI-1 was a significant prognostic factor in all these models ( Table 5). The adjusted HRs for uPA (2.4 to 3.4) were higher than those for NPI (2.0) and histologic grade (2.5), but lower than that for SPF (3.8).


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Table 5. Multivariate Analyses of Distant Recurrence on the Basis of SPF (n = 204), NPI (n = 216), or histologic grade (n = 216) and uPA/PAI-1
 
When other known prognostic factors (age, tumor size, and PgR) were also taken into account in a multivariate analysis, uPA was still a significant prognostic factor, with HRs varying between 2.8 (P = .02 in the model including SPF) and 3.2 (P = .004 in the model including histologic grade). Also, PAI-1 showed a similar pattern in the more complex models including NPI or histologic grade, but was not a significant prognostic factor. However, in the complex model including SPF, PAI-1 was a significant factor, and surprisingly the adjusted HR for distant recurrence was highest in the low–PAI-1 group (HR = 0.4, P = .03). SPF remained a strong independent prognostic factor (HR = 3.1, P = .01), whereas the additional effect of NPI and histologic grade disappeared (HR 1.3, P = .5 for both factors). In these models, age and PgR were borderline significant factors. The risk decreased with age and was lower in the PgR-positive than in the PgR-negative group. Tumor size was also a borderline significant factor in the model including SPF (HR = 2.2, P = .05), but not in the model including histologic grade (HR = 1.7, P = .2). Since tumor size is part of NPI, no model with both these factors was considered. The prognostic value of age as a continuous variable was evaluated in two different models, one adjusting for SPF and uPA (P = .05), and the other adjusting for histologic grade and uPA (P = .06). The results were concordant, demonstrating a borderline significant 6% hazard reduction per year of age.

As 208 of the 237 patients were given no adjuvant treatment, the multivariate analyses were also repeated for the untreated patients. The HRs for distant recurrence were somewhat lower for all factors but for uPA, whose prognostic value was even more pronounced in this subgroup. Since uPA was found to be an independent prognostic factor, it can be used in addition to SPF and histologic grade for prognostic considerations.

Kaplan-Meier estimates of distant recurrence-free survival stratified by SPF and uPA and by histologic grade and uPA are presented in Fig 2, A and B, respectively. Each of the three factors was dichotomized into a high- and a low-risk group (Table 4). In order to simplify comparisons between Fig 2, A and B, cases with missing data on SPF, uPA, or histologic grade (n = 43) were excluded. The distribution of the remaining 32 distant recurrences and the size of the risk sets are given below the graphs.



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Fig 2. Distant disease-free survival stratified by (A) SPF and uPA, and (B) histologic grade and uPA, in 194 cases with complete information on these three factors. The number of patients at risk and the number of distant recurrences in each subgroup are given below each graph. Abbreviations: S, SPF; U, uPA; G, histologic grade; -, low risk; +, high risk.

 
A high-risk group, determined on the basis of high SPF and high uPA, identifies only 13% of the patients (26 of 194), of whom 11 (42%) have experienced distant recurrences. If this high-risk group is extended to include also the two discordant groups (high SPF/low uPA or low SPF/high uPA) then 40% of the patients (78 of 194) are included in the high-risk group. Twenty-one of these patients (27%) have experienced distant recurrences. Seven of the 18 patients with distant recurrences in the low-SPF group (39%) were identified as high-risk patients by uPA. The distant recurrence-free survival in the extended high-risk group was significantly worse (P = .0004, log-rank test) than in the corresponding low-risk group (low SPF/low uPA constituting 60% of all patients), where 9% of the patients (11 of 116) have experienced distant recurrences so far. When instead evaluating uPA as a complement to histologic grade, a similar pattern was seen (Fig 2B).

Disease-Free Survival Univariate analyses with disease-free survival (locoregional and distant recurrences) as an end point were also performed, yielding lower HRs for all factors analyzed except PAI-1 compared with DDFS. The following three factors had the highest HRs: SPF HR 3.1 (95% CI, 1.8 to 5.3), uPA HR 2.6 (95% CI, 1.5 to 4.5), and histologic grade HR 2.4 (95% CI, 1.4 to 4.0). The relative risk of PAI-1 increased and was statistically significant (HR 1.9 [95% CI, 1.1 to 3.3], P = .02).

Overall Survival Of 17 patients who died, all but one died from breast cancer. Overall survival (OS) at 3 years was 96% (95% CI, 92% to 98%). In univariate analyses, SPF, histologic grade, NPI, and uPA were all highly significant predictors for OS. Also, ER and PgR were highly significant, whereas the prognostic value of PAI-1, age, ploidy, and tumor size was less pronounced. Bivariate analyses showed that the HRs for uPA (high v low) was significantly higher than one after adjustment for histologic grade (HR = 3.7, P = .03), but not after adjustment for SPF (HR = 2.6, P = .15). SPF remained the strongest prognostic factor (HR = 5.7, P = .005).


    DISCUSSION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
In this consecutive premenopausal patient group with lymph node–negative breast cancer, SPF was a more powerful prognostic factor than histologic grade and NPI for DDFS, DFS, and OS. SPF was also found to be more informative than other more or less established prognostic factors (tumor size, ER, and PgR). The only factor that was significant in multivariate analyses including SPF was uPA, confirming that uPA is an important prognostic factor in breast cancer.7,11-16,18 In addition, high uPA was also a marker for distant recurrence in patients with low SPF and identified 39% of the distant recurrences in the low-risk group (seven of 18). Thus, by using a combination of either high SPF and/or high uPA, 66% of all distant recurrences were identified in a patient group consisting of 40% of the entire population.

We have previously shown that SPF is an important prognostic factor in lymph node–negative breast cancer.6 The present study, where SPF has been prospectively measured, is thus a confirmation of SPF as a significant prognostic factor.6,29 It is worth emphasizing that the flow cytometric DNA analyses have been performed routinely every week and that the same cutoff as in the previous investigation was used for SPF.

Tumor size is usually regarded as an important prognostic factor in lymph node–negative breast cancer.30 This could not be confirmed in the present study. One reason may be that the median tumor size has decreased since the introduction of mammography screening programs.

Several reports have demonstrated that uPA and PAI-1 are valuable prognostic factors for disease-free survival in breast cancer.15,18-20 These factors are presently being used as selection instruments for adjuvant medical treatment in a German multicenter trial.31 We were able to confirm the prognostic importance of uPA, but in contrast to several earlier studies15,17,18-21 PAI-1 was not a prognostic factor for DDFS in the present one. However, it was predictive for disease-free survival in univariate analyses. There are several possible explanations for this discrepancy. The majority of patients evaluated in previous studies were postmenopausal women with lymph node metastases and tumors larger than 2 cm.15,18,19,32 The number of locoregional recurrences was high in this study, as patients treated with breast-conserving surgery without postoperative irradiation were also included. This suggests that PAI-1 is also a marker for local recurrence. Two studies, both with a smaller number of premenopausal patients than the present study, have evaluated lymph node–negative patients exclusively. Subgroup analysis of premenopausal patients demonstrated prognostic value of PAI-1 for DFS but not for OS in the study of Grøndahl-Hansen et al,17 whereas in the trial of Kim et al PAI-1 was without prognostic value.33 The majority of publications have reported DFS and OS but not DDFS. In only three reports was PAI-1 found to be an independent prognostic factor for DDFS.19,20,32 A recent univariate analysis of a Dutch database also demonstrated the prognostic importance of PAI-1 for DFS, DDFS, and OS in 593 premenopausal node-negative breast cancer (J.A. Foekens, personal communication, October 1999). A meta-analysis of studies of uPA and PAI-1 including our study is in progress within the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Receptor and Biomarker Study Group.

On the basis of histologic grade30 or NPI,1-3 patients with lymph node–negative breast cancer are frequently selected for adjuvant treatment. In the present study, both factors were highly significant in univariate analyses of DDFS, but in multivariate analyses, including SPF, they gave no additional prognostic information. This could be explained by their strong association with SPF. In our study, SPF is thus a better choice than histologic grade for identification of patients at high risk of recurrence. We have also shown that the prognostic value of tumor size is questionable in this group of patients with relatively small tumors. This and the fact that NPI only categorizes node-negative patients into two groups, with the exception of patients with tumors 7 cm or larger, is the likely explanation why NPI was a weaker prognostic factor than histologic grade in the present study.

When choosing among prognostic factors suitable for clinical use, it is also important to consider other aspects, such as availability, reproducibility, and cost. The advantage of histologic grading is that it can easily be performed at the time of primary microscopic examination, in principle on all cases without being much more time consuming for the pathologist. One major disadvantage of the evaluation of histologic grade is that it is difficult to obtain good reproducibility if many pathologists are involved.34 However, with a limited number of breast cancer–dedicated pathologists, histologic grading has been shown to give reproducible results.1,3 The seven pathologists involved in the present study participated in a quality control study preceding this investigation.22

One advantage of flow cytometric SPF is that if the analysis is performed under strict conditions by experienced technicians, a good inter- and intralaboratory reproducibility can be achieved35 (Bendahl et al, manuscript in preparation). The disadvantages of this technique are that the equipment is not always available, that tissue from small tumors usually cannot be obtained, and that SPF cannot be reliably calculated in all DNA histograms. For those cases where information of SPF is not available, histologic grade is a suitable alternative.

Further subdivision of patient groups with widely varying recurrence rates can be obtained by using combinations of prognostic markers as demonstrated in Fig 2. By using SPF, a small high-risk group is identified with a recurrence rate of 35%. Irrespective of prognostic factor selected for identification of high-risk groups, a number of recurrences appeared in low-risk groups (Fig 1). A large proportion of these in the low-SPF group, 39% (seven of 18), were identified by high uPA values. Thus, a combination of high SPF and/or high uPA could be used as a selection instrument for patients requiring adjuvant therapy.

The dilemma for the clinician treating breast cancer patients is at what recurrence rate is adjuvant medical treatment indicated. Ideally, the selected cutoff point for a prognostic marker should identify a population with such a low risk of recurrence that adjuvant treatment is questionable.36 One advantage of variables with a continuous increase in risk such as SPF is that cutoff points can be adjusted to identify patient groups with recurrence rates above the level that is considered high enough to justify adjuvant medical treatment.

Another important issue, not as frequently discussed, is whether the prognostic value of a factor varies with time after primary operation.5,37,38 The prognostic value of the factors included in the present study was apparent only for the first 3 years after operation. Thereafter, no factor was useful. Interestingly, for three of four recurring patients with histologic grade 3 but low SPF, the recurrences were detected after more than 4 years. Prognostic factors identifying early recurrences are more useful as selection instruments, since prevention or delay of early relapses will have a greater impact on the number of person-years saved by adjuvant treatment. In the present study, 33% (12 of 36) of all distant recurrences occurred more than 3 years after primary surgery. These late recurrences, according to a recent hypothesis, may be explained by the fact that the majority of breast cancer metastases initially are in a dormant state with no or limited angiogenic capacity.39 It is also not known what reduction of late recurrences can be obtained by administering 4 to 8 months of chemotherapy in conjunction with primary operation.

The usefulness of a prognostic factor increases if it also has predictive value for treatment. Data from several studies indicate that high percentage of DNA-synthesizing cells also is a predictive marker for response to chemotherapy in disseminated disease,40 induction chemotherapy,41 and adjuvant treatment.42 This argues in favor of SPF, or another proliferation marker such as thymidine labeling index,43 as a selection instrument compared with histologic grade.

We conclude that SPF, prospectively measured in clinical routine, was the most important prognostic factor for distant recurrence and survival of premenopausal women with lymph node–negative breast cancer. Histologic grade and NPI were strongly associated with SPF and therefore without additional prognostic value. In this study on node-negative patients with small tumors, standard use of NPI was inferior to histologic grade. In cases lacking SPF, histologic grade could be used as an alternative. Furthermore, uPA, but not its inhibitor PAI-1, was shown to be an independent prognostic factor in addition to each of the three factors, SPF, histologic grade, and NPI. Therefore, uPA might further improve prognostication in premenopausal lymph node–negative breast cancer patients.


    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 
Supported by grants from the Swedish Cancer Society, Gunnar, Arvid and Elisabeth Nilsson Foundation, Mrs Berta Kamprad Foundation, John and Augusta Persson Foundation for Medical Science, and University Hospital of Lund Research Foundation.

We thank participating pathologists Lola Anagnostaki, Erik Holm, Sven Johansson, Otto Ljungberg, and Görel Östberg for histologic grading of tumor biopsies. Bo Baldetorp’s expertise on flow cytometric S-phase analysis has been of utmost importance for this study. The continuous efforts of Torgil Möller and Britt-Marie Lundh at the Regional Tumor Registry in Lund was the basis for this study. The excellent technical assistance of Ghita Fallenius, Ulla Johansson, Eva Långström, and Gunilla Sellberg is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Eva Henriksson for preparation of illustrations. We are also indebted to participating departments of surgery and oncology of the South Sweden Breast Cancer Group for primary care and follow-up of the patients.


    REFERENCES
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
1. Elston CW, Ellis IO: Pathological prognostic factors in breast cancer: I. The value of histological grade in breast cancer—Experience from a large study with long-term follow-up. Histopathology 19: 403-410, 1991[Medline]

2. Galea MH, Blamey RW, Elston CW, et al: The Nottingham Prognostic Index in primary breast cancer. Breast Cancer Res Treat 22: 207-219, 1992[Medline]

3. Ellis IO, Galea M, Broughton N, et al: Pathological prognostic factors in breast cancer: II. Histological type—Relationship with survival in a large study with long-term follow-up. Histopathology 20: 479-489, 1992[Medline]

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Submitted February 23, 2000; accepted November 2, 2000.


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