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© 2002 American Society for Clinical Oncology Low Sensitivity of the ki-ras Polymerase Chain Reaction for Diagnosing Pancreatic Cancer From Pancreatic Juice and Bile: A Multicenter Prospective TrialByFrom the Department of Internal Medicine I and Department of Internal Medicine II, University of the Saarland, Homburg; Diakonissen Hospital, Ludwigslust; and Department of Medicine II, Ludwig-Maximilian University, Munich, Germany. Address reprint requests to Lorenz Trümper, MD, PhD, Department of Hematology and Oncology, Georg-August-University, Robert-Koch-Str 40, 37075 Goettingen, Germany; email: lorenz.truemper{at}med.uni-goettingen.de
PURPOSE: Early detection of pancreatic cancer using molecular markers may improve outcome. Mutations of the ki-ras oncogene are detected in 70% to 90% of pancreatic adenocarcinomas. A prospective, partially blinded, multicenter diagnostic trial was performed to test the sensitivity and specificity of the ki-ras polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of pancreatic juice and bile specimens. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Specimens of pancreatic juice and bile were collected from 532 consecutive patients. Mutations in codon 12 of the ki-ras gene were identified by two independent enrichment PCRs and confirmed by direct sequencing. RESULTS: One hundred seventy-four of 532 patients were excluded from the final analysis (reasons: no amplifiable DNA, no specimen or only duodenal juice sent, lost to follow-up). Sixty-three of 358 patients had ductal pancreatic cancer. In 24 (38.1%) of 63 patients, a mutated ki-ras gene was identified in pancreatic juice and/or bile. Ki-ras mutations were found in four (8%) of 50 cases of chronic pancreatitis, in 10 (18.7%) of 53 cases of other malignancies of the pancreaticobiliary tree, and in 14 (7.3%) of 192 cases of benign diseases or normal findings. Sensitivity and specificity of the ki-ras PCR analysis for the detection of pancreatic cancer was 38.1% and 90.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this prospective trial performed in nonselected patients, mutations of the ki-ras gene were detected in 38.1% of cases with pancreatic cancer. This test in its present form is not appropriate to confirm or screen for pancreatic cancer. More sensitive and/or quantitative PCR tests may improve the molecular diagnosis of pancreatic cancer.
THE INCIDENCE OF pancreatic cancer is rising in the Western world; at present, it represents the fourth most common cause of cancer-related deaths, responsible for more than 25,000 deaths per year in the United States. Only radical resection of the tumor with surrounding lymph nodes provides a curative chance for the patient; unfortunately, this option is limited to approximately 20% of the patients with pancreatic cancer, because the majority of cases are diagnosed at a late stage of disease.1,2 Because chemotherapy and radiation do not bear a curative potential, earlier detection of the disease is the only way to improve the outcome of patients with pancreatic cancer. In 1988, the first report on a high frequency of Kirsten-ras (ki-ras) codon 12 mutations in pancreatic cancer was published.3 The large majority of mutations have been shown to be situated in codon 12.4-8 In several small series of nine to 33 patients, the mutations could also be detected in pure pancreatic9-11 or in duodenal juice12 using different polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques. The potential use of this molecular technique for the early detection and diagnosis of pancreatic cancer generated much interest13 and enthusiasm. The frequency of mutations in pancreatic cancer was estimated at 75% to 95%, when investigating histopathologic specimens.3,4,7,14 In the largest series so far, mutated ki-ras genes were detected in 63 (75%) of 84 patients.14 Because of the high frequency of these mutations in pancreatic carcinoma, ki-ras mutations are generally believed to occur at an early stage of tumor development.15 All published data on the identification of ki-ras mutations in pancreatic or duodenal juice are based on small, probably selected, and often retrospectively analyzed series of patients. Therefore, we designed a prospective, multicenter clinical trial to study the frequency of ki-ras mutations in pancreatic juice, bile, and duodenal juice, aspirated during the process of diagnostic evaluation of unselected, consecutive patients undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), and further, to correlate the molecular findings (obtained without prior knowledge about the clinical diagnosis on the part of the molecular biologists) with the definitive diagnoses of the patients during follow-up. The primary aim was to test the sensitivity and specificity of the ki-ras enrichment PCR in pancreatic juice or bile for pancreatic cancer and other gastrointestinal diseases including chronic pancreatitis and different benign or malignant diseases of the pancreaticobiliary tree. The secondary aim was to test the prognostic significance of the identification of a ki-ras mutation in chronic pancreatitis.
The study protocol was approved by the local ethics committee of the University of Saarland on March 9, 1995, and the respective local boards in each participating center.
Centers
Patients
Extraction of Specimens/ERCP
Preparation of Samples
PCR
Evaluation of the Results
Results were reported as mutated or wild type and submitted to the study database. Bile and pancreatic juice were analyzed separately. If in a patient only one of those two contained mutated ki-ras genes, the patient was classified as positive. All secretions that we received of an individual patient at the time of entering the study were taken into account. Duodenal juice specimens were not considered in this analysisif we received only duodenal juice from a patient, this patient was not assessable, because the study protocol did not permit duodenal juice examinations for the primary study aims.
Definitive Diagnoses
Statistical Calculation
Eligible Patients Between April 1995 and February 1999, 642 patient numbers were allocated to patients at the six participating centers. Because of incorrect repeated allocations of patient numbers to the same patient (n = 66), missing sheets with personal data referring to specimens sent (n = 27), or cases in which erroneously only biopsy samples were sent (n = 17), 532 patients could be enrolled on the primary analysis presented here. In a second step, a total of 174 patients were classified as not assessable when their specimens of bile or pancreatic juice did not contain DNA as judged by a negative ki-ras and beta-actin PCR (65 cases); no specimens reached the laboratory even though patient number sheets were sent (47 cases); only duodenal juice was sent to the laboratory (40 cases); the amount of secretions was not enough to perform a (second) confirmation PCR when the first PCR was interpreted as mutant ki-ras (10 cases); or no definitive diagnosis was established during follow-up (lost to follow-up) (12 cases). Eventually, 358 patients could be enrolled on the final analysis (Fig 1).
Distribution of Diagnoses These 358 patients fell into the four following groups of diagnoses: pancreatic carcinomas (ductal adenocarcinomas), 63 cases; chronic pancreatitis (in the majority grade II and III according to the radiologic Cambridge classification20), 50 cases; different malignancies of the pancreaticobiliary tree (eg, cholangiocellular carcinomas, gallbladder carcinomas, ampullary carcinomas), 53 cases; and different benign diseases (eg, cholangiolithiasis, benign stenoses of the common bile duct) and normal findings, 192 cases.
Identification of ki-ras Mutations: Per-Patient Analysis
The mutation rate in patients with chronic pancreatitis was 8% (four of 50); all of these mutations were found in pancreatic juice (four mutations in 42 specimens). In patients with different malignancies of the pancreaticobiliary tree that were not ductal pancreatic cancer (ie, mainly gallbladder, cholangiocellular, or periampullary carcinomas), the mutation rate reached 18.7% (10 of 53), and three of 25 pancreatic juice specimens and eight of 41 bile specimens were classified as positive. In one case, both specimens tested positive. Table 2 shows the distribution of different tumors and metastases found in the pancreaticobiliary tree and the number of associated ki-ras mutations.
At 7.3%, the mutation rate was lowest in the group of different benign diseases and normal findings (14 of 192). In this group, seven of 98 pancreatic juice and another seven of 147 bile specimens were classified as positive (Table 1). A synopsis of the whole study population is shown in Fig 1. This results in an overall sensitivity of the ki-ras PCR analysis in pancreatic juice or bile of 38.1% for the identification of pancreatic cancer with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 21.8% to 49.3%. The specificity of the test, calculated by the number of specimens with a wild-type ki-ras gene out of all nonpancreatic cancer cases divided by the total number of all nonpancreatic cancer cases, reaches 90.5% (95% CI, 86.9% to 93.5%). The positive and negative predictive values are 46.2% (95% CI, 38.5% to 53.8%) and 86.9% (95% CI, 81.2% to 88.9%), respectively. If one were to add the 65 samples without DNA (that contained either not enough cells or degraded DNA) to this calculation, the sensitivity would probably decrease further; because we have not obtained follow-up information on these patients, the exact figure cannot be assessed correctly.
Follow-Up of Patients With a Mutated ki-ras Gene Suffering From Benign Disease
Patients With Inconsistent Results of the ki-ras PCR in Repeatedly Sent Specimens
Despite substantial progress in improving imaging techniques such as ultrasound, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, the preoperative and noninvasive diagnosis of pancreatic cancer remains difficult. With respect to the so-called tumor markers, only CA 19-9 is of substantial clinical benefit in diagnosing pancreatic malignancy. Applying the usual cutoff value of 37 U/mL, the sensitivity and specificity reach 80% and 40% to 75%, respectively.21 However, CA 19-9 values are strongly influenced by cholestasis, and thus are helpful only in the minority of cases without cholestasis. Noninvasive imaging methods, especially the recent applications of helical CT scanning and MRI, are able to detect a pancreatic tumor of approximately 1 cm in diameter, but rarely discriminate between an inflammatory and a malignant pancreatic head tumor. ERCP is currently the best invasive diagnostic method, and yields a sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing pancreatic cancer of 78% to 95%,22-24 respectively, in the hands of experienced investigators. The so-called double-duct sign, a characteristic radiographic feature of pancreatic malignancy, predicts the presence of pancreatic cancer with a specificity of about 85%,25 but even the combination of the double-duct sign with a pancreatic mass seen on CT scan or MRI does not prove pancreatic cancer, because a number of cases with chronic pancreatitis meet these criteria also. If technically possible, diagnosis may be confirmed by additional brush cytology or forceps biopsy of the stenosis of the major pancreatic or the common bile duct. However, even in the hands of experienced investigators, this procedure reaches a diagnostic yield of 60% to 70% at maximum.26-29 In a large series of 312 consecutive patients with extrahepatic bile duct stenosis, the sensitivity of brush cytology for malignancy was not higher than 36%.30 Ultrasound-guided transcutaneous fine-needle aspiration yields a specificity up to 100%,31 but the sensitivity is not higher than 72% to 75%32-34 and bears the risk of spreading tumor cells along the biopsy channel. Therefore, this procedure should be avoided as long as surgical resection of the process is under discussion. Finally, endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) offers a precise visualization of pancreatic tumors larger than 5 to 10 mm. The sensitivity of the method in various series of more than 20 patients was consistently above 95%.18,35,36 In a prospective and comparative study with a total of 76 patients with pancreatic carcinoma, the sensitivity of EUS was 99% compared with 77% for CT scanning.37 Yet, similar to other imaging methods, EUS cannot differentiate between a benign or malignant mass of the pancreas because the malignancy of a given lesion cannot be determined on the basis of its endosonographic features. Recently, EUS-guided fine-needle aspiration has gained interest because it allows for cytologic investigation of a pancreatic mass that is not detectable by transcutaneous ultrasound. Sensitivity and specificity in the hands of experienced investigators reach 80% and higher.38,39 However, this method is highly sophisticated, is burdened with a considerable rate of false-negative results (especially when examining only small numbers of patients), and is available only in a few centers so far. It was hoped that the combination of standard diagnostic procedures and novel molecular tests designed to detect presumably tumor-specific markers with a high sensitivity would greatly improve the diagnostic accuracy in pancreatic cancer. The combination of ki-ras analysis with ERCP could theoretically raise the sensitivity and specificity of the investigation to over 98%. It was also proposed that the early detection of these molecular markers in patients at risk for the development of cancer (eg, patients with chronic pancreatitis) might aid in the early diagnosis of cancer. However, only stringent diagnostic trials in analogy to clinical phase II and III trials can prove these assumptions and determine the clinical value of the respective tests.40 Our study therefore aimed at testing the hypothesis that the majority of pancreatic cancers can be detected by ki-ras analysis in bile or pancreatic fluid under real-life conditions (multicenter analysis, necessity of sending specimens by mail with consecutive delay of processing in the laboratory, different endoscopists, blinded analysis in the laboratory with regard to the suspected clinical diagnosis) and in a prospective manner. The test was not designed to be a screening test because only patients with clinical symptoms would be tested. However, the hope was that this test would aid in the differential diagnosis in situations where imaging methods do not discriminate between inflammatory and malignant lesions. However, even after optimization of our method for the detection of ki-ras mutations, compared with our previous studies,11,16,18,41 the sensitivity of the ki-ras PCR analysis of bile and/or pancreatic fluid did not exceed 40%. The specificity of the test is in fact (with approximately 90%) much better, but this represents no clinically relevant progress, because 10 of 100 cases of cancer would remain undetected and the specificity of ERCP alone is not much lower. In our opinion, the major obstacles to an increased sensitivity of the ki-ras PCR analysis used here are as follows: it is difficult or impossible to obtain sufficient amounts of pancreatic juice in cases of a filiform stenosis, especially when located near the ampulla of Vater; aspirated bile will not contain tumor cells, if there is only encasement and no infiltration of the common bile duct by the tumor; not all malignant adenocarcinomas of the pancreas contain ki-ras mutations; and the sensitivity of the PCR test is limited, because of technical limitations of the assay and because application of contrast media for ERCP may further dilute the pancreatic juice containing scarce tumor cells. The specificity of the ki-ras PCR analysis is limited by the fact that a couple of specimens of patients with different malignant and benign diseases tested positive. This may be because of false-positive PCR results that may occur when using the enrichment PCR procedure,18 or because of mutations that may be present in nonmalignant diseases of the pancreatic duct (see below). Because chronic pancreatitis carries an increased risk for the later development of pancreatic cancer, the finding of Furuya et al,42 who compared patients with pancreatic cancer and chronic pancreatitis and found that up to 37% of the latter showed mutations of the ki-ras gene, generated much interest. In addition, different mutations at codon 12 in the same tumor43 and mutations in adjacent inflammatory tissues11 were described by others, suggesting that the detection of mutations of the ki-ras oncogene may not be sufficient to diagnose a malignancy. In our study, four of 50 (8%) patients with chronic pancreatitis revealed a mutated ki-ras oncogene. We did not observe the development of pancreatic cancer in this group during a relatively short mean follow-up period of 33 months. Furuya et al42 also did not observe the development of cancer among 20 pancreatitis patients during a mean follow-up period of 78 months. Eight of 33 (24.2%) cholangiocellular, gallbladder, or periampullary carcinomas tested positive. Mutations of the ki-ras gene have been described in cases of cholangiocellular carcinomas44,45 and periampullary carcinomas,46 and are a frequent phenomenon in gallbladder carcinoma, especially in cases with an anomalous junction of the pancreaticobiliary tract.47 Motojima et al,7 in contrast, postulated that the consideration of the ki-ras status allows for distinction of periampullary from true pancreatic carcinomas. Clinically, there should be no problem in distinguishing gallbladder from pancreatic cancer, but a distal cholangiocellular carcinoma and especially periampullary tumors are likely to be confused with pancreatic cancer in several cases. The problem of varying results in repeatedly aspirated secretions has not been described yet. Provided that the technique of ERCP was the same (the repeatedly sent bile specimens originated from the same institutions in each case), a negative result that switched to positive in the course of the study is most likely because of an intercurrent invasion of the common bile duct wall by the tumor. The results of this study highlight some of the major obstacles to the development of molecular tests in the diagnosis and follow-up of human cancers. Molecular markers may consist of individual molecular aberrations (such as specific immunoglobulin rearrangements in malignant lymphomas) or acquired genetic aberrations that commonly occur during the multistep development of cancer. Whereas the former are relatively specific and have been successfully applied in the clinical monitoring of lymphatic leukemias,48 less progress has been made in transferring analyses of the latter to the clinic. Mutations or deletions of oncogenes such as the ki-ras gene or tumor suppressor genes are frequently found in human epithelial cancer. They have been successfully used in the molecular staging (eg, for head and neck cancers49) and follow-up. However, single-oncogene mutations may neither be necessary for a given cancer (as illustrated by the rate of wild-type ras cancers in pancreatic or colorectal cancer) nor specific, as demonstrated by the presence of ki-ras mutations in hyperplastic duct cells of the pancreas without pancreatic disease.43 The American Society of Clinical Oncology guidelines40 rightly state that "new markers are frequently introduced into clinical practice without rigorous analysis, with the assumption that any information available to the clinician may help the patient." The trial reported here supports the notion that the latter assumption is indeed wrong. Finally, the analysis of bile or pancreatic juice specimens for ki-ras mutations in detail is a costly procedure. Performance of enrichment PCR and the confirmation PCR takes about 2 days for the laboratory personnel. The currently refunded amount of approximately 210 euros per PCR in Germany only covers the costs for material and equipment used. However, the demonstration that this method has a fairly high positive predictive value may guide in the development of molecular assays that carry a higher specificity. The combination of several markers such as ki-ras with microsatellite instability50 and other oncogene alterations such as DPC4 deletions51 may hold promise for the future. In addition, the number of mutated cells may be much lower in inflammatory lesions than in malignant lesions; therefore, quantitative analyses52 may also be used to define threshold values for the detection of cancer. Trials such as the one presented here are labor intensive, but are nonetheless essential in establishing or refuting presumably better diagnostic procedures. Molecular markers should not be introduced into clinical practice without such rigorous testing.
Supported by the Wilhelm-Sander-Stiftung, Neuburg a.d.Donau, through grant nos. 93.043.1-3 (L.T., H.D). This article contains data that are part of the MD thesis at the Medical Faculty of the University of Saarland (D.K., J.-O. R).
L.T. and M.M. contributed equally to this work.
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Copyright © 2002 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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