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Originally published as JCO Early Release 10.1200/JCO.2003.06.025 on October 27 2003 © 2003 American Society for Clinical Oncology Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer: How Presentation of Recurrence Risk Influences Decision-Making
From the Division of Surgical Oncology and the Department of Medicine and Behavioral Oncology Program, James Graham Brown Cancer Center; the Departments of Psychological and Brain Sciences and the Biostatistics-Decision Science Program, University of Louisville; and the Division of Medical Oncology, Norton Healthcare, Louisville, KY; Abell Research Consulting, Ouray, CO. Address reprint requests to Celia Chao, MD, Department of Surgery, University of Texas Medical Branch, 301 University Blvd, Route 0527, Galveston, TX 77555-0527; e-mail: cechao{at}utmb.edu or Jamie L. Studts, PhD, James Graham Brown Cancer Center, 529 S Jackson St, Louisville, KY 40202; e-mail: jamie.studts{at}louisville.edu.
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of four methods of communicating survival benefits on chemotherapy decisions. We hypothesized that the four methods of communicating mathematically equivalent risk information would lead to different chemotherapy decisions. Methods: Each participant received two hypothetical scenarios regarding their mother (a postmenopausal woman with an invasive, lymph node-negative, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer) and was asked to decide whether they would encourage their mother to take chemotherapy in addition to surgery and tamoxifen. In the part 1, participants received one of four methods of describing the chemotherapy survival benefit: (1) relative risk reduction, (2) absolute risk reduction, (3) absolute survival benefit, or (4) number needed to treat. In part 2, each participant received all four methods. Following each decision, participants were asked to rate their confidence and confusion regarding their decision. Results: Participants included 203 preclinical medical students. In part 1, participants who received relative risk reduction information were significantly more likely to endorse chemotherapy. In part 2, there were no treatment decision differences when participants received all four methods of communicating survival benefits of chemotherapy. However, receiving all four methods led to significantly higher ratings of confusion. In deciding on endorsing chemotherapy, participants understood the information best when presented with data in the absolute survival benefit format. Conclusion: These results support the hypothesis that the method used to present information about chemotherapy influences treatment decisions. Absolute survival benefit is the most easily understood method of conveying the information regarding benefit of treatment.
SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES in the treatment of breast cancer have been made during the last several decades through the conduct of large, prospective, randomized clinical trials. These trials offer clinicians clear estimates of cancer mortality risk and survival benefit with the addition of chemotherapy. However, the wealth of clinical trial data has been accompanied by increasing complexity of decision-making, and greater confusion among patients as a result of the myriad options available. This is especially true for postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor- and/or progesterone receptor-positive tumors, for whom chemotherapy may add marginal extra benefit in addition to hormonal therapy with tamoxifen.1 Obtaining accurate information regarding the risks and benefits of all treatment options is an integral part of the patients decision-making process and subsequent informed consent.2 In addition, physician influence has been shown to have a great effect on patient preferences for treatment options.3,4 This is an exploratory study that aims to establish whether the terminology used by physicians to convey risks and benefits of adjuvant therapy influences patient treatment decisions and contributes to a limited understanding of their prognosis with or without treatment. Mathematical risk estimates are not easy to understand by the average patient. By extension, patients may have difficulty making informed decisions if fundamentally they are confused about the potential benefits of chemotherapy. We hypothesized that the way in which the benefit of chemotherapy is explained profoundly influences the patients perception of the pros and cons of adjuvant chemotherapy. We examined four equivalent ways to present risk reduction: (1) relative risk reduction (RRR), (2) absolute risk reduction (ARR), (3) absolute survival benefit (ASB), and (4) number needed to treat (NNT). Although all four are acceptable and mathematically equivalent methods to convey risk or benefit, the most optimal method has not been determined. Risk estimates can have negative connotations (eg, risk of death/relapse) or the opposite effect if positively framed (eg, survival benefit or chance of cure).5
Study Population This study was approved by the appropriate institutional review board, and the questionnaires were distributed to first- and second-year medical students at the University of Louisville. Preclinical medical students were selected for this pilot study because the educational level of the students represents a higher-than-average group of participants who should be able to understand the medical scenario presented, and the statistical descriptions of the potential treatment benefits. We reasoned that this educated group likely represented a conservative assessment of the impact of physician communication styles on patient preferences. The students signed informed consent, understood that their participation was voluntary, and were offered free lunch for their participation.
Assessment of Baseline Moods and Beliefs
Questionnaire Scenarios
Scenario Development A team of medical and surgical oncologists, a senior medical student, a clinical psychologist, and a decision scientist designed the scenarios used in the survey (Appendix). The scenarios were refined in response to pilot testing with a group of clinical psychology graduate students. The Flesch-Kincaid grade level score and the Flesch Reading Ease score9 were applied to each statement of risk reduction. The grade level scores, measured in US grade equivalents, were 8.7, 8.6, 9.4, and 8.5 for RRR, ARR, ASB, and NNT, respectively. Reading Ease scores, rated on a 100-point scale, with higher scores indicating easier readability, were 63, 65, 56, and 58, respectively.
Outcome Measures
Statistical Methods
Participants The characteristics of our study participants are listed in Table 1
Based on analyses comparing age, marital status, sex, personal or family history of cancer, personal or family history of chemotherapy, baseline mood, and post-test mood, no differences were identified between students randomized to receive scenario A first versus participants randomized to receive scenario B first. Overall, the mean pretest mood score was 6.79 (standard deviation [SD], 1.57), similar to the mean posttest score of 6.72 (SD, 1.42). However, first-year students reported a significantly higher baseline (t200 = 2.39, P = .02) and posttest mood scores (t199 = 2.02, P = .045) compared with second-year students. Although statistically different, this disparity in mood is not clinically meaningful and would likely not influence the interpretation of the results. The mean perceived tolerability of chemotherapy was 4.10 (SD, 1.05; range, 2 to 6), while the mean perceived value of chemotherapy was higher at 5.58 (SD, 0.88; range, 2 to 7).
Participant Preferences
When participants had the opportunity to review all four methods presented together in part 2 of scenario A, 35% of participants endorsed chemotherapy. Results of the logistic regression model comparing endorsement rates between the randomized groups from part 1 of the scenario showed no difference between the groups who originally received only one of the formats ( 23 [N = 203] = 1.72; P = .63). When all four formats were presented together in part 2 of scenario B, 43% of participants endorsed chemotherapy. The logistic regression model was consistent with the results of the data from scenario A, and no overall difference between the groups was identified ( 23 [n = 200] = 0.79; P = .85).
Participant Confusion and Confidence Ratings With regard to confidence ratings, results failed to reveal any statistically significant between- or within-groups differences (data not shown).
Accuracy and Understanding of Risk and Benefit Information
In scenario B, part 1, statistically significant group differences were again revealed on the question involving the chance of survival if chemotherapy was accepted ( 23 [N = 203] = 65.84; P < .001), and a pattern similar to scenario A emerged among the pair-wise comparisons. The RRR group was significantly less accurate in comparison to the other three groupsARR (P < .001); ASB (P < .001); and NNT (P = .01). However, in contrast to the results from scenario A, an overall group difference was identified involving the accuracy of risk and benefit information if chemotherapy was not taken ( 23 [N = 203] = 13.46; P = .004). Pair-wise comparisons again showed that the RRR group provided significantly fewer accurate responses in comparison to the other three groups: ARR (P = .03); ASB (P < .001); and NNT (P = .02). In part 2 of scenario B, no overall differences were revealed on either question concerning chances of survival, although pair-wise comparisons showed significant differences between the RRR group and the ASB group for both questions (P = .03 and P = .01, respectively).
Treatment choices are offered to patients routinely; however, we have a limited understanding of how to best convey the treatment options and what motivates patients to choose one option over another. What is the best method for clinicians to convey accurately and concisely the risks and benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy? The answer to this question is particularly important because it has been shown that physician recommendation for treatment is the strongest predictor for accepting a prescribed therapy. Indeed, one study showed that 80% of patients chose what their oncologist recommended.10 Studies document that breast cancer patients prioritize as most important information directly relating to the chance of cure and spread of cancer while side effects of treatment rank medium priority.11,12 Despite a clear desire for "numbers," Ravdin et al13 found that only 39% of women remember receiving a "quantitative estimate" both with and without adjuvant therapy. Interestingly, even in the absence of concrete estimates by their physicians, 68% of patients were able to provide their own survival estimate at five-years with and without the chemotherapy. Indeed, often patient perceptions and understandings of the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy are discordant with the reality of their situation. Many factors may influence the patients preferences for and processing of information: sex, age, and educational level, cancer type, stage of disease, the proposed treatment plan, including potential benefits, and side effects. Patients may be dissatisfied with, deny, or misunderstand the information as presented.14,15 In this study, sex, educational level, and denial (since the participants are not actual patients) are likely not confounders contributing to a misunderstanding of prognosis. In our hypothetical scenarios, the participants must take into account the prognostic value of chemotherapy as well as the risks of treatment. The benefits of accepting adjuvant chemotherapy were presented in four mathematically equivalent ways: RRR, ARR, ASB, and NNT. Therefore, any misunderstanding or confusion regarding the risks and benefits of chemotherapy can be attributable solely to the method of presentation.
RRR is not a useful format for patients or physicians16,17 because benefit estimates are not intuitively obvious. Even among medical students, who by definition have higher educational levels than the average population, this concept is difficult to comprehend. The concept of RRR presupposes that the mathematical formula can be easily calculated and that the patient/participant can convert this information into the true or absolute benefit. Understanding of the true benefit is often completely overestimated (Table 4 There are many studies of preferences for chemotherapy in the metastatic setting.18 These studies are not relevant in the adjuvant setting. Patients are told the average life expectancy, and a substantial number of patients, when offered the chance to extend their lives for even 1 additional week, will state their enthusiasm for chemotherapy. In the adjuvant setting, Leighl et al19 audiotaped initial adjuvant therapy consultations with medical and radiation oncologists. In this study, 37% of physicians phrased the benefit of therapy in terms of "relative reduction in risk of relapse" while 61% used "absolute reduction in risk of relapse." Other investigators have offered patients a threshold for the magnitude of survival benefit for which they would accept adjuvant chemotherapy. For example, in a survey of breast cancer survivors published by Ravdin et al,13 women reported that they would be agreeable to adjuvant chemotherapy if the reduction in the risk of death from breast cancer was as low as 0.5% to 1% (median). Additionally, patients were asked how many months to years of extra life were worth the experience of undergoing chemotherapy; the median acceptable time of life gained was 3 to 6 months. Similar to other studies that report a threshold, the issue of what that number really means is not adequately explored. In the adjuvant setting, time gained by chemotherapy is never stated in terms of months of life gained. Furthermore, time gained can never be precise for one individual but rather, represents data from a collective group of women in similar clinical situations. Although information on individual risk is what patients may want, it is not possible to state benefit in such terms. In fact, "1% reduction in death from breast cancer" (or 1% survival benefit) may easily mean that one extra person of 100 patients will live as a result of the therapy. We do not know if the patient understands that she may be among the 99% who will live anyway without the therapy. It may be likely that she thinks she will be the one that will live as a result of chemotherapy. In a report by Simes, patients were given "time trade-off" questions. In that study, 46% of patients considered a survival of an additional 0.5 years with the addition of chemotherapy equivalent to 5 years survival without chemotherapy.20 For 77% of patients surveyed, an increase of life from 5 to 6 years was considered worthwhile. "Time-trade-off" questions are misleading, in our opinion, in that many patients will mistake the additional time quoted in the hypothetical scenario as time "guaranteed" or "certain" to their particular medical situation.
In contrast to studies where patients would endorse chemotherapy for small survival benefits, Feldman et al presented potential benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer in terms of ASB by referring to a prognostic table.21 Among those who may gain a 2% absolute survival advantage, 20% of such patients received chemotherapy before routine use of the table. However, only 14% chose to take adjuvant chemotherapy after use of the table. At a threshold of 4% survival benefit, there was a significant increase in those who agreed to take chemotherapy after institution of the prognostic table (from 42% to 64%). For Sometimes, accurate information or more information may not predict increased endorsement of a particular therapy. In a randomized study in which an educational tool was utilized to help patients understand the risks and benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer, Whelan et al22 showed that patients reported an improved understanding of their disease and probability of treatment benefit. However, no statistical differences were noted between those patients who used the tool versus those that did not with respect to endorsing chemotherapy. Current recommendations call for considering adjuvant chemotherapy for most breast cancers larger than 1 cm even though the long-term risk of relapse from small node-negative tumors is 10% to 20%.23 The conclusions of our study emphasize that despite "consensus recommendations"24,25 and "practice guidelines,"23 the true benefit of chemotherapy in postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive tumors receiving tamoxifen often is not well understood when presented in the RRR format. Perceived benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy may seem less impressive to the informed patient or family members. Counseling in terms of relative risk reduction does not accurately convey the marginal benefits of adding cytotoxic therapy for small, node-negative cancers. In this study, without overt knowledge of published guidelines and when presented with all four methods of risk-benefit information, only 35% of the medical students endorsed chemotherapy for their mother with a hormone-sensitive tumor that was 1.9 cm, and 43% endorsed adjuvant chemotherapy for a hormone-sensitive 2.9-cm tumor. Limitations of this study included the small sample size, the small number of non-white participants, and the fact that the participants were not actual patients. For this pilot study, medical students were chosen because they represent a subpopulation that has both interest and the background to understand the risk-benefit discussions. They should find the scenarios less confusing compared with an average patient. It has been shown that endorsement of treatments vary significantly especially if the participant actually must face the scenarios presented.18 Although 47% of the participants have a personal or family history of taking chemotherapy, the type of cancer, stage of disease, and performance status is not known. These and other factors such as socioeconomic and ethnic backgrounds can bias ones perception of the risk and benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy, however irrelevant these biases may seem in these hypothetical scenarios. In conclusion, the methods in which physicians present quantitative risk significantly impact patient decision-making. The ASB method results in the lowest endorsement of adjuvant chemotherapy while the RRR methods results in the highest rate of endorsement. Further, the RRR method led to less accurate knowledge of prognosis with and without chemotherapy. Finally, presentation of all four methods led to higher confusion ratings regarding treatment decisions.
Example: Scenario A, Part 1 Each student was randomized to receive only 1 of the 4 questions (given the same scenario below): Your mother underwent surgery to remove a 1.9 cm tumor that was determined to be estrogen and progesterone receptor positive (ie, the tumor is hormonally-sensitive to an antihormone drug called TAMOXIFEN). Also, the tumor has not spread to the lymph nodes. Without any additional therapy (other than surgery), her chance of surviving in the next 10 years is 81%. She has started Tamoxifen therapy. She has been offered chemotherapy in addition to surgery and Tamoxifen. Chemotherapy will not guarantee that survival will be 100%. Many patients are cured without chemotherapy at all. Some patients may have microscopic tumor cells which may be reduced by chemotherapy; these patients will benefit from chemotherapy. Some tumor cells may be resistant to chemotherapy, which is why chemotherapy may not benefit all patients. We cannot predict which patients may benefit. Because she is healthy, the side effects are probably tolerable, especially with medications that treat the side effects. Side effects of chemotherapy are generally temporary and include possible infection when the immune system is suppressed, anemia, fatigue, hair loss, some symptoms of menopause, and possible nausea and vomiting. The only possible permanent side effect would be a small risk of heart failure. Using the information provided, your mother has asked you to advise her on her decision. The survival benefit is stated in each case. Please read the following scenario and decide whether or not you would advise your mother to take the chemotherapy. Please circle YES if you think the benefit of chemotherapy is worth the risk and circle NO if you think the risk of chemotherapy is not worth the benefit.
Example of Scenario A, Part 2: Please examine all the information presented in items 1 to 4 to make your decision.
Do you advise her to take the chemotherapy? YES NO
The authors indicated no potential conflicts of interest.
Supported by the Center for Advanced Surgical Technologies (CAST) of Norton Hospital, Louisville, Kentucky and the Links for Life Foundation, Louisville, Kentucky. Both C.C. and J.L.S contributed equally to this work.
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Copyright © 2003 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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