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© 2003 American Society for Clinical Oncology Thymidylate Synthase Expression in Hepatic Tumors Is a Predictor of Survival and Progression in Patients With Resectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
From the Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Medicine, Surgery, and Pathology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY; Department of Medicine, the Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ. Address reprint requests to Mithat Gonen, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 1275 York Ave, Box 44, New York, NY 10021; email: gonenm{at}mskcc.org.
Purpose: To investigate the role of thymidylate synthase (TS),p53, and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGF-R) expressions in hepatic tumors in predicting overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and hepatic progression-free survival (HPFS) in patients with resectable metastatic colorectal cancer who were randomly assigned to receive either systemic chemotherapy (SYS) alone or systemic and hepatic arterial infusion (HAI+SYS) chemotherapy following liver surgery. Patients and Methods: Tissues from metastatic tumors were collected during liver resection from 156 patients, and marker expressions were determined using immunohistochemistry on frozen samples. Univariate associations between marker expressions and baseline variables with OS, PFS, and HPFS were examined. Independent predictors of outcome were determined using a multivariate Cox model. Results: In multivariate analyses, TSoverexpression was found to be an independent factor of poor prognosis in OS (P < .01), PFS (P = .06), and HPFS (P < .01). In addition, resection margin was a significant independent factor for all three outcomes. Patients who received HAI+SYS experienced delayed progression in general, and in the liver, specifically. Increased levels of serum alkaline phosphatase correlated with hepatic progression. We also found a significant TS-treatment interaction for OS (P = .01) in multivariate analysis. In particular, TS+ patients receiving HAI+SYS had significantly higher survival than those receiving SYS (64 monthsv 21 months; P = .01). Conclusion: TSlevels in hepatic tumors and resection margin are independent predictors of survival and progression in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer, whereasp53and EGFRare not independent predictors. Treatment with HAI+SYS significantly improved the survival profile of TS+ patients.
COLORECTAL CANCER is the fourth most commonly diagnosed cancer and ranks second among cancer deaths in the United States. Although it is a highly treatable and often curable disease when localized, the prognosis of metastatic patients is considerably worse. The liver is the most common site of colorectal metastases, and it is often the only organ affected. Fifteen percent of patients present with synchronous disease, and 60% of all metastatic patients will have liver-only or liver-dominant disease. The only potentially curative option for liver metastases is surgery, but even after resection, liver is the most common site of relapse. Regional hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy along with systemic chemotherapy (HAI+SYS) has been shown to improve 2-year survival when compared with systemic (SYS) chemotherapy alone.1 Stage of primary tumor, number of liver metastases, disease-free interval, preoperative carcino embryonic antigen, tumor size, positive resection margin, and presence of extrahepatic disease are reported to be independent prognostic factors of survival in this patient population.2,3
Numerous studies have linked molecular markers with clinical outcome for colorectal cancer patients.421 The expressions in the primary tumor and their association with outcome are well studied.5,6,10,11,1517,1920 The marker expressions in hepatic tumors have also been subject of many studies, in both resectable8,9 and unresectable6,7,9,1214,18 patients. Thymidylate synthase (TS), the target enzyme of fluorouracil (FU)-based chemotherapy, is commonly reported to correlate with response and survival in these settings, along with p53. It is difficult to present a comprehensive account of all reports regarding the utility of molecular markers in colorectal cancer, but Table 1
This article presents the largest group of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who received adjuvant chemotherapy and for whom TS, p53, and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGF-R) expressions in hepatic tumors are available. We examine these markers (TS, p53, and EGF-R) in relation to overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and hepatic progression-free survival (HPFS) on 156 patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who underwent liver resection and received adjuvant chemotherapy. These patients were enrolled in a randomized study of SYS versus HAI+SYS.1 We also include in our analyses several factors that are reported to be of prognostic importance in the literature to confirm whether molecular markers are independent predictors of outcome. In addition, taking advantage of the fact that the data come from a randomized study, we explore the influence of marker expression within each treatment group.
Patients A total of 156 patients with colorectal cancer were randomly allocated after complete resection of the liver metastases. Seventy-four of them were randomly assigned to receive HAI+SYS, and 82 were assigned to receive SYS alone. HAI therapy consisted of floxuridine (FUDR) and dexamethasone. The SYS therapy was fluorouracil and leucovorin (FU/LV) or FU alone by continuous infusion. The trial was designed to compare SYS and HAI+SYS, and the results of this primary comparison were reported elsewhere.1 All survival data were updated before the analyses were undertaken. Samples from hepatic tumors were obtained during liver resection. Tissues from 12 patients were not available; hence, the analyses were based on the remaining 144 patients. All marker expressions were determined using immunohistochemical staining on paraffin sections.
Immunohistochemistry of TS
Immunohistochemistry of p53
Immunohistochemistry of EGF
Statistical Methods
All survival probabilities were estimated by using the Kaplan-Meier method. The univariate relationships between OS, PFS, and HPFS with each of the markers and 18 baseline characteristics were evaluated using the log-rank test for categorical variables and the Wald test for continuous variables. Potential treatment-marker interactions were also evaluated using survival probabilities and relative risk estimates. Cox proportional hazards models were used for multivariate analysis. All three markers, regardless of the univariate results, and significant baseline variables from univariate analysis (P < .10) as well as treatment-marker interactions were included. Model choice was performed using backward selection with P < .10 as the exit criterion. The final model was determined using various likelihood-based criteria (Likelihood Ratio, Akaikes Information Criterion, and Schwartzs Bayesian Criterion). All statistical analyses were performed using SAS software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC).
Univariate OS Analysis Among the categorical variables, sex, primary site, resection margin, and number of metastases were univariately significant in relation to OS (Table 2a
Univariate analyses for each molecular marker showed that patients with overexpression had shortened survival (median survivals: 64 v 37 months for TS, 83 v 48 months for p53, and 63 v 42 months for EGF-R). The difference was marginally significant for TS (P = .06) and p53 (P = .07), but it was not significant for EGF-R (P = .30; Table 3
Evaluation by Treatment To evaluate potential treatment-marker interactions, we investigated the effect of markers within each treatment group separately. Table 4
Table 5
Multivariate Results The following factors were included in the multivariate analysis for OS: TS, p53, EGF-R, treatment, treatment-TS interaction, resection margin, primary site, number of metastases, and sex. Multivariate analysis revealed TS, TS-treatment interaction, and resection margin as independent risks for survival. Treatment main effect was kept in the model because the interaction was significant. Regarding PFS, TS, p53, EGF-R, treatment, resection margin, primary site, type of surgery, tumor distribution, and serum alkaline phosphatase were included in the multivariate analysis. The factors TS, treatment, number of metastases, and resection margin were found to be independent predictors of PFS. Finally, for HPFS, TS, p53, EGF-R, treatment, resection margin, primary site, number of metastases, type of surgery, tumor distribution, and serum alkaline phosphate were used in the multivariate analysis. The factors that were included in the final model were treatment, TS, resection margin, and serum alkaline phosphatase. Findings of the multivariate analysis for each end point are summarized in Table 6
Interaction between TS and treatment assignment remained significant for OS after adjusting for the presence of other factors. The presence of an interaction term requires some adjustments in reporting relative risks. Separate relative risks should be reported for each TS group. The relative risk of death between the two treatment groups is 4.26 for TS+ patients, but only 1.01 for TS- patients. A significant interaction term also supports our findings from the univariate analysis where TS expression was shown to be a prognostic factor for SYS therapy, but not for HAI+SYS therapy.
There is an increasing interest in evaluating the role of molecular markers to response and long-term outcome in cancer patients. This article presents the largest group of patients with resectable hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer for whom TS, p53, and EGF-R expressions in hepatic tumors are available. The interaction between TS and treatment assignment has not been reported in the literature before. Although there is evidence that p53 and TS are related to FU resistance, we studied EGF-R only to see whether there is any prognostic information in that marker. Immunohistochemistry is a semiquantitative assay. However, it has the advantage of assessing expression at the microanatomical detail, where cell-specific levels can be determined at the subcellular level (ie, nucleus v cytoplasm membrane). We made an effort to follow the literature in using the cutoffs for defining positive phenotypes.10,20,22,23 Using different cutoffs may yield different prevalences and also potentially alter the conclusions of any study using immunohistochemistry. The prevalence of TS overexpression in our cohort is about the same as the one reported in one study where the measurements were performed quantitatively using reverse transcription.18 Another study used both immunohistochemistry and direct sequencing of p53 and showed a strong correlation between the two.23 As a result, we feel comfortable that the choice of cutoffs did not unduly influence our conclusions.
There are several well-established prognostic factors for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.2,3,2434 Table 7
The results of the multivariate analyses reported here indicate that baseline TS expression provides important information about survival and progression independent of the information provided by these clinical factors. Resection margin was also found to be an important factor both for survival and progression in our analysis. Number of metastases was significantly associated with progression, and baseline alkaline phosphatase level was found to be an independent predictor of progression in the liver. Other factors, such as stage of primary disease, tumor size, preoperative CEA, disease-free interval, and extrahepatic disease, which are reported in the literature to be important prognostic factors (as summarized in Tables 7 Although a significant role of TS is established in predicting survival and progression, no such effect is supported by our data for p53 and EGF-R. There is a marginal univariate significance for p53, but this difference dissipates in a multivariate setting, and it seems that the prognostic information provided by p53 is already embodied in the clinical variables included. A similar phenomenon was noted in earlier studies of the primary colon and rectal tumors.15,16 There are other studies that showed TS expression in primary tumors to be associated with response and survival.5,6,10,11,19 In contrast, a recent report found no relation between TS expression in primary tumor and long-term outcome.20 Previously, another report found no significant relationship between p53 levels in the primary tumor and recurrence.17 Regarding the expression in hepatic tumors, the focus of the literature has been mostly on unresectable patients. TS overexpression was negatively correlated with response, survival, and PFS in a group of 48 unresectable patients who received bolus FU-based therapy alternating with continuous infusion.12 In terms of unresectable patients receiving hepatic arterial infusion, overexpression of TS in hepatic tumors is reported to be a marker of resistance to chemotherapy13 and a negative prognostic factor for survival.14 Another study reported that TS- patients receiving HAI+SYS are four times more likely to respond than TS+ patients.7 Recently, in a cohort of 50 patients with unresectable hepatic metastases, TS was found to correlate with survival and recurrence.18 There is only one study that included resectable patients, along with unresectable ones, that found a significant relationship between p53 and EGF-R with disease-free survival.9 All the 68 patients in that study had synchronous disease.
Overall, many previous studies reported that TS and p53 expressions in hepatic tumors correlate with outcome, but none of these studies specifically focused on resectable patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (Table 1 Our findings indicate that the prognostic role of TS expression in hepatic tumors established by these findings extends to the resected population undergoing adjuvant therapy as well. In the cohort analyzed here, TS overexpression was a major factor in predicting OS for the patients receiving SYS, but not necessarily for those who receive adjuvant HAI+SYS. The TS-treatment interaction we identified here has implications for treating future patients. Previous in vitro studies showed that tumor resistance to fluorinated pyrimidines, including FU and FUDR, is related to insufficient inactivation of the TS enzyme. An important finding from this study is that delivery of hepatic arterial infusion FUDR results in increased survival even in the face of TS overexpression. Whether this is because of the higher doses that can be given by the technique or because of the regional application that may produce higher intracellular levels is not clear. Identification of treatment-marker interactions are important because they enable us to predict resistance or sensitivity to certain therapies and prescribe appropriate regimens. Such interactions should be verified prospectively before they can be incorporated into clinical routine.21 We plan to evaluate the tissue specimens from other ongoing studies to further substantiate the role of TS expression in hepatic tumors as a predictor of long-term outcome and to validate our findings.
Supported by NCI grant 5R01CA61524-7.
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Copyright © 2003 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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