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Originally published as JCO Early Release 10.1200/JCO.2004.05.111 on April 26 2004 © 2004 American Society of Clinical Oncology. Magnitude of Response With Myeloma Frontline Therapy Does Not Predict Outcome: Importance of Time to Progression in Southwest Oncology Group Chemotherapy TrialsFrom the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA; Southwest Oncology Group Statistical Center, Cancer Research and Biostatistics, Seattle, WA; and Myeloma Institute for Research and Therapy, University of Arkansas for Medical Studies, Little Rock, AR. Address reprint requests to Brian G.M. Durie, MD, Cedars-Sinai, 8201 Beverly Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90048; e-mail: bdurie{at}salick.com
PURPOSE: Four Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) standard-dose chemotherapy protocols for multiple myeloma (MM) initiated between 1982 and 1992 were evaluated. The purpose was to clarify the predictive value of specific levels of myeloma-associated monoclonal protein reduction and time to first progression using mature data sets. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Study data on 1,555 eligible previously untreated patients with MM enrolled onto SWOG phase III trials 8229, 8624, 9028, and 9210 were used in these analyses. Six-month and 12-month landmark analyses were performed to evaluate the outcome for patients in each response category.
RESULTS: The overall and event-free survivals for the four protocols combined were 33 months and 18 months, respectively. Using 6- and 12-month landmarks, the median survivals of 30 to 35 months were not different for responders ( CONCLUSION: The magnitude of response, as a single variable, does not predict survival duration. Patients with response and stable disease have equivalent outcome. Only patients with progressive disease have a poorer outcome. The best indicator of survival is time to first progression.
Improvement in survival duration is the primary and most important evidence of benefit from therapy.1 Because treatment benefit is typically associated with reduction in myeloma-associated monoclonal protein (M-protein), quantitation of changes in M-protein levels has often been used as a surrogate marker of treatment outcome.2 During the 1980s, questions were raised about the validity of response criteria based on the percentage reduction in M-protein.3-7 Several studies showed that although achieving some degree of M-protein stabilization or reduction was important, the exact amount or percentage reduction was not directly correlated with the survival duration.3-7 In 1991, an editorial summarized the caution required in the interpretation of 50%, 75%, and 90% or higher levels of M-protein reduction with respect to treatment benefit.8 Complete remission, even true complete remission with negative bone marrow and markers, was not necessarily better than 50% reduction as far as survival duration improvement. In an effort to further clarify the predictive value of M-protein reduction as a surrogate marker of survival benefit, it was elected to perform landmark analyses using several Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) studies.3 Using 6-month and 1-year landmarks, the impact of different levels of regression was evaluated. First progression of disease from the start of treatment was also evaluated as a surrogate marker of treatment benefit. Using these techniques, first progression, but not magnitude of M-protein reduction, was correlated with overall survival duration.
Patient Population Prestudy and serial follow-up data from four recent SWOG multiple myeloma phase III trials9-13 were used in these analyses (Table 1). Patients eligible for these studies had untreated, newly diagnosed multiple myeloma of any stage. SWOG study S822910 evaluated vincristine, melphalan, cyclophosphamide, and prednisone (VMCP)/vincristine, carmustine, doxorubicin, and prednisone (VBAP) for remission induction therapy followed by VMCP versus sequential half-body radiotherapy plus vincristine with prednisone in patients who achieved remission status with chemotherapy or sequential half-body radiotherapy plus vincristine with prednisone in patients who failed to achieve remission. SWOG study S862411 was a comparison of VMCP/VBAP with vincristine, doxorubicin, and dexamethasone (VAD) or vincristine, melphalan, cyclophosphamide, prednisone, and cisplain/vincristine, carmustine, doxorubicin, prednisone, and cisplatin for induction, followed by interferon alfa-2b or interferon alfa-2b plus prednisone for remission maintenance. The VAD plus verapamil plus quinine arm of study S902812 was closed early because of excessive mortality related to quinine toxicity. This arm was not included in these analyses. SWOG study S921013 compared VAD-prednisone with VAD-prednisone/quinine for induction, followed by a randomization of prednisone dose-intensity for remission maintenance.
End Points The primary outcome of interest in these analyses is overall survival (OS). This is the measured time from initial study registration to time of death from any cause or last contact.
The response criteria were defined as follows: remission (previously identified as complete remission in SWOG criteria),
Statistical Methods
Patient Characteristics A total of 1,555 protocol-eligible patients were available for these analyses (Table 1). The median age was 62 years (range, 26 to 87 years); 61% of patients were men and 19% were African-American. Laboratory characteristics are presented in Table 2. Disease characteristics, including Durie-Salmon (DS) stage, are listed in Table 3. Laboratory variable distributions did not differ between the four studies, with a few notable exceptions. Serum ß2 microglobulin was higher in the older studies (65% 4 mg/L in S8229 v 57% 4 mg/L in S9210), as was hemoglobin (64% 10g/dL in S8229 v 46% 10g/dL in S9210). Although a similar number of patients had more than three lytic lesions in the four studies, a greater percentage of patients had no bone lesions in the more recent studies (25% in S9210) than the older studies (16% in S8229). Disease characteristics (eg, isotype, light chain isotype) were similar across studies.
Median OS in the combined data set was 33 months. OS varied slightly between the four studies (Fig 1). OS by DS stage in this patient population is presented in Figure 2. Median OS by DS stage ranged from 57 months in stage I patients to 21 months in stage IIIB patients. Distribution of DS stage differed slightly between studies, with a smaller percentage of patients identified as either stage I/II or stage IIIB in the more recent studies (32% stage I/II in S8229 v 28% stage I/II in S9210; 24% stage IIIB in S8229 v 18% stage IIIB in S9210).
OS and EFS Figure 1 shows the OS and EFS for the four frontline protocols evaluated. No significant differences were observed. The median OS was 33 months and EFS was 18 months. Approximately 20% of patients are still in remission at 4 years and remain alive at 6 years. Conversely, 20% of patients die within the first year, and 35% of patients are no longer in remission at the end of the first year.
OS From 6-Month and 12-Month Landmarks Classified by Any Type of Response in Patients With No PD Before Landmark
OS From 6-Month and 12-Month Landmarks Classified by Progression and Prior Response Figure 3 shows the 6- and 12-month landmark survival curves for patients who have experienced disease progression, classified by primary disease progression (ie, no initial response) and patients with different levels of response before progression. The differences are significant overall (P < .0001). The worst median survivals of 4 or 5 months, respectively, were for patients having 50% or 75% decrease in M-protein followed by progression within the first 6 months. Nonresponders who experienced disease progression at 6 months or 1 year fared somewhat better, with median survivals of 15 to 19 months. Nonprogression was the best predictor of improved survival, with median survival durations of 34 and 33 months, respectively, using the 6-month and 12-month landmarks.
Evaluation of Myeloma Response in the Cox Survival Model
Correlates of time to first progression are summarized in Table 6. In essence, time to progression is correlated well with the prognostic factors typically used to predict OS, such as serum beta-2 microglobulin, serum albumin level, and platelet count. Details of prognostic factors have recently been investigated by SWOG in the development of a new SWOG staging system.18
When magnitude of response is considered as a single independent variable without regard for the length of response, it is not predictive of survival duration. Despite pervasive assumptions to the contrary, this is consistent with previously published data.3-8 In retrospect, the only study indicating a relationship between serum M-protein decrement and survival duration was published in 1972 and did not assess remission duration, nor use landmark techniques.2 As was emphasized in 1975,19 M-component levels are not directly correlated with myeloma cell tumor burden. Myeloma cells have a wide range of M-component synthetic rates per cell, from 0 (nonsecretory) to very high. Some therapies can also impact M-protein synthetic rate and/or metabolism without necessarily eradicating myeloma cells. From a biologic standpoint, the major determinants of survival duration for patients with myeloma are (1) myeloma stage or tumor burden, that is, the number of cells at the start of therapy, which on a fractional basis (ie, 1 per 106 or 107 initial myeloma cells) determine the initial number of resistant myeloma cells19,20; (2) the intrinsic biology of the resistant myeloma cells, that is, the number and biologic properties, especially the growth fraction, of resistant cells remaining after a particular therapy21-27; and (3) the host factors responsible for myeloma cell growth regulation.28,29 It is therefore not surprising that the best independent indicator of survival duration is the time to develop first disease progression. If residual myeloma cells remain after induction, which is unfortunately the case even with high-dose chemotherapy with transplantation, the recurrent growth potential is indicated by the time to progression. In our analyses of these four standard-dose chemotherapy regimens used by SWOG (Figs 2 and 3), lack of progression for the remission, PR, and SD subgroups translated into a doubling of survival (34 months v 13 to 15 months median; P < .001). Conversely, the majority of patients with myeloma with ultimately poorer survival experienced disease progression within the first year (Fig 3). Two recent European studies evaluating frontline therapy for myeloma reached the same conclusion, namely that magnitude of initial regression does not impact subsequent survival duration.30,31 The Italian study by Riccardi et al31 emphasizes the excellent survival of patients with SD (median survival, 41 months). As in the current study, the only subgroup with significantly poorer survival was the subgroup of patients with PD within the first year. The median survival for PD patients in the Italian study was 13.6 months, which is remarkably similar to our values of 13 months at the 6-month landmark and 15 months at the 1-year landmark (Fig 3). These patients with early PD using conventional therapy are identified in all these studies as candidates for new approaches to treatment. Because the identifying prognostic factors of this subgroup include higher baseline serum beta-2 microglobulin and other indicators of poorer prognosis (Table 6), it may be that single and especially tandem autologous transplantation are potential priorities in these patients. Two recent studies identify particular benefit of single autologous32 and tandem33 autologous transplantation for patients with high serum beta-2 microglobulin and resistant disease after a first transplantation, respectively. In evaluating treatment outcome, it is also important to be aware of the survival benefit in patients with SD. This patient population is often targeted for relapse protocols and novel therapies, but actually, such patients have intrinsically good prognosis (ie, similar to remission and PR patients) and may not even need any therapy at all. Patients with SD can have residual myeloma with a 0% growth fraction24,27 and have a long plateau phase without additional therapy. The plateau level of M-protein can be 3 g/dL or greater.27 The documentation of stability with serial monitoring is more important than the actual M-protein level. It is helpful to realize that these observations in myeloma patients are also mimicked by findings in other cancer patients. For example, in a meta-analysis of frontline therapy in colorectal cancer, initial cytoreduction per se does not impact ultimate survival duration.34 There are several implications that can be derived from the presented analyses and results. Given these findings with standard-dose therapy, time to first progression is the best measure of the impact of therapy on ultimate survival duration. Disease monitoring should focus on achievement of SD or plateau phase27 and loss of stability with development of clinically significant disease progression or relapse. Indicators of disease stability or plateau are low L1%24,27 and negative fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography scan.35 Besides rather arbitrary increases in serum and/or urine M-component levels, determination of disease progression requires precise criteria of disease activation. New bone disease, reduction in hemoglobin, and other clinical parameters can be used to clearly document the need for therapy.
It will be important to assess whether these data derived from standard-dose protocols also apply to high-dose therapy with stem-cell rescue as well as biologic treatments such as thalidomide and/or bortezomib. Our results suggest that clinicians and investigators should pay less attention to the precise decrement in M-protein level and more attention to progression of disease in assessing utility and clinical benefit of standard chemotherapy regimens in multiple myeloma. Although
The authors indicated no potential conflicts of interest.
Authors' disclosures of potential conflicts of interest are found at the end of this article.
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13. Berenson R, Crowley JJ, Grogan TM, et al: Maintenance therapy with alternate-day prednisone improves survival in multiple myeloma patients. Blood 99:3163-3168, 2002 14. Kaplan EL, Meier P: Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. J Am Stat Assoc 53:457-481, 1958[CrossRef] 15. Mantel N: Evaluation of survival data and two new rank order statistics arising in its consideration. Cancer Chemother Rep 50:163-170, 1966[Medline] 16. Cox DR: Regression models and life-tables (with discussion). J R Stat Soc B 34:187-220, 1972 17. Crowley JJ, LeBlanc M, Jacobson JL, et al: Some exploratory tools for survival analysis: Lecture notes in statistics. Proc First Seattle Symposium Biostatistics 1:199-229, 1997 18. Jacobson JL, Hussein MA, Barlogie B, et al: A new staging system for multiple myeloma patients based on the Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) experience. Br J Haematol 122:441-450, 2003[CrossRef][Medline] 19. Durie BGM, Salmon SE: A clinical staging system for multiple myeloma. Cancer 36:842-854, 1975[CrossRef][Medline]
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22. Durie BGM, Young LA, Simon SE: Human myeloma in vitro colony growth: Interrelationships between drug sensitivity, cell kinetics and patient survival duration. Blood 61:929-934, 1983 23. Durie BGM: Is myeloma really a monoclonal disease? Br J Haematol 57:357-363, 1984[Medline] 24. Boccadoro M, Gavarotti P, Fossati G, et al: Low plasma cell 3(H) thymidine incorporation in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) smoldering myeloma and remission phase myeloma: A reliable indicator of patients not requiring therapy. Br J Haematol 58:689-696, 1984[Medline]
25. Durie BGM, Vela E, Baum V, et al: Establishment of two new myeloma cell lines from bilateral pleural effusions: Evidence for sequential in vivo clonal change. Blood 66:548-555, 1985
26. Durie BGM, Grogan TM: CALLA-positive myeloma: An aggressive subtype with poor survival. Blood 66:229-232, 1985 27. Durie BGM, Russell DH, Salmon SE: Reappraisal of plateau phase in myeloma. Lancet 2:65-68, 1980[CrossRef][Medline] 28. Brown RD, Pope B, Yuen E, et al: The expression of T cell related costimulatory molecules in multiple myeloma. Leuk Lymphoma 31:379-384, 1998[Medline]
29. Brown RD, Pope B, Murray A, et al: Dendritic cells from patients with myeloma are numerically normal, but functionally defective as they fail to up regulate CD80 (B71) expression after huCD40LT stimulation due to inhibition by transforming growth factor-beta1 and interleukin-10. Blood 98:2992-2998, 2001 30. Oivanen TM, Kellokumpu-Lehtinen P, Koivisto AM, et al: Response level and survival after conventional chemotherapy for multiple myeloma: A Finnish Leukaemia Group study. Eur J Haematol 62:109-116, 1999[Medline] 31. Riccardi A, Mora O, Tinelli C, et al: Response to first-line chemotherapy and long-term survival in patients with multiple myeloma: Results of the MM87 prospective randomized protocol. Eur J Cancer 39:1:31-37, 2003
32. Morgan G, Davies F, Hawkins K, et al: The MRC myeloma VII trial of standard versus intensive treatment in patients < 65 years of age with multiple myeloma. N Engl J Med 348:1875-1883, 2003 33. Attal M, Harousseau JL, Facon T, et al: Single versus double autologous stem-cell transplantation for multiple myeloma. N Engl J Med 26:2495-2502, 2003 34. Buyse M, Thirion RW, Carlson T: Relation between tumour response to first-line chemotherapy and survival in advanced colorectal cancer: A meta-analysisMeta-Analysis Group in Cancer. Lancet 356:373-378, 2000[CrossRef][Medline]
35. Durie BGM, Waxman A, D'Agnolo A, et al: Whole body FDG/PET scanning identifies high risk myeloma. J Nucl Med 43:1457-1463, 2002 Submitted May 15, 2003; accepted November 2, 2003.
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Copyright © 2004 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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