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Originally published as JCO Early Release 10.1200/JCO.2004.05.009 on June 1 2004 © 2004 American Society of Clinical Oncology. Benefits and Costs of Interventions to Improve Breast Cancer Outcomes in African American WomenFrom the Department of Oncology, Georgetown University Medical Center, and Cancer Control Program, Lombardi Cancer Center, Washington, DC; Department of Family Medicine, Albert Einstein School of Medicine, Bronx; City University of New York, New York; Health Policy Research Center at the Robert J. Milano Graduate School of Management and Urban Policy at the New School for Social Research, New York, NY; and the Department of Health Studies and University of Chicago Cancer Research Center, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL Address reprint requests to Jeanne Mandelblatt, MD, MPH, Lombardi Cancer Center, 2233 Wisconsin Ave, Suite 317, Washington, DC 20007; e-mail: mandelbj{at}georgetown.edu
PURPOSE: Historically, African American women have experienced higher breast cancer mortality than white women, despite lower incidence. Our objective was to evaluate whether costs of increasing rates of screening or application of intensive treatment will be off-set by survival benefits for African American women. METHODS: We use a stochastic simulation model of the natural history of breast cancer to evaluate the incremental societal costs and benefits of status quo versus targeted biennial screening or treatment improvements among African Americans 40 years of age and older. Main outcome measures were number of mammograms, stage, all-cause mortality, and discounted costs per life year saved (LYS). RESULTS: At the current screening rate of 76%, there is little incremental benefit associated with further increasing screening, and the costs are high: $124,053 and $124,217 per LYS for lay health worker and patient reminder interventions, respectively, compared with the status quo. Using reminders would cost $51,537 per LYS if targeted to virtually unscreened women or $78,130 per LYS if targeted to women with a two-fold increase in baseline risk. If all patients received the most intensive treatment recommended, costs increase but deaths decrease, for a cost of $52,678 per LYS. Investments of up to $6,000 per breast cancer patient could be used to enhance treatment and still yield cost-effectiveness ratios of less than $75,000 per LYS. CONCLUSION: Except in pockets of unscreened or high-risk women, further investments in interventions to increase screening are unlikely to be an efficient use of resources. Ensuring that African American women receive intensive treatment seems to be the most cost-effective approach to decreasing the disproportionate mortality experienced by this population.
Breast cancer is second only to lung cancer as the leading cause of potentially avoidable cancer mortality among women.1,2 In the last two decades, the mortality rate from breast cancer has decreased by approximately 7% in younger white women.1 However, African American women have yet to realize similar mortality reductions, and older African American women have experienced an increase in mortality, despite a lower incidence of disease than their white counterparts.1,3 A portion of the excess mortality seen in African American women could be caused by low rates of screening, failure to receive timely and complete diagnostic follow-up, or receiving suboptimal treatment. For instance, historically, African American women had significantly lower rates of mammography screening4-6 and later-stage diagnosis7-12 than did white women. Although disparities in screening rates have significantly diminished in recent years,13some, such as poor, minority, and older women, still remain at risk for having their cancers detected at later stages.7 Once African American women are screened, if they have cancer, treatment is often suboptimal.3,14-16 Thus, there are important points in the process of breast cancer control where interventions could potentially reduce the disproportionate morbidity and mortality observed in African American women. Prior cost-effectiveness analyses of breast cancer screening have demonstrated that reductions in mortality can be achieved at a reasonable cost per life year saved in general17-21 as well as in selected groups of older22-25 and/or older African American women.25 However, there are no data regarding whether additional expenditures to enhance the cancer control process for African American women would result in improved overall survival at reasonable societal expenditures. In this study, we use a model simulating the natural history of breast cancer to test the hypothesis that the added costs of targeted programs to increase screening or enhance receipt of intensive systemic treatment will be off-set by the downstream benefits of increased survival among African American women who develop breast cancer.
We used an event-driven, continuous-time Monte Carlo simulation model to evaluate the costs, harms, and benefits of adding new cancer control interventions to current United States patterns of care for African American women. We compared targeted clinical screening interventions (patient reminders or lay health worker) versus status quo biennial screening or receiving optimal treatment (consistent with current recommendations) versus current patterns of care. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, where the additional costs of a strategy, divided by the added savings in life years, are compared with the next least expensive effective strategy.26 We also calculated intermediate outcomes, including number of abnormal mammograms, number of false-positives, number of cancers diagnosed, and stage distribution associated with each strategy. All costs and effects are discounted at 3%.26 All scenarios were examined by generating 1.25 million simulated patients, a sample size chosen to ensure that the SE of the estimated population life expectancy would be less than 2 days. We used a matched simulation approach to maximize computer resource efficiency and maximize the precision of our effect estimates.27 Briefly, in the analyses of screening interventions as an example, each simulated woman is simulated twice: once with screening and the other time without. The random numbers used for all variables simulated for the woman are identical in the two simulations (matched), except for the fact of screening and the events after screening. The comparison between intervention scenarios was then made by varying the proportion of simulated women who are screened versus unscreened in the given scenario.
Disease Natural History Model
For women who do not develop cancer, the probability of a false-positive mammogram is based on the general age-specific specificity of mammogram and the number of mammograms received between age 40 years and the date of death. Finally, interventions designed to improve screening use and rates of receipt of intensive treatment modify events in the model (eg, increase probability of screen detection, increase survival through use of chemotherapy to treat ER-negative disease). We chose a biennial screening interval because this is the standard tested in randomized trials and the interval used in most prior cost-effectiveness analyses of breast screening.
Model Assumptions
Second, at this time there are insufficient good-quality ER-stratified survival data for DCIS, so we assume that all women diagnosed with carcinoma-in-situ will have overall age-specific DCIS survival. We also make the simplifying assumption that lobular carcinoma-in-situ and DCIS have the same natural history and survival. Next, although there are good-quality data for the short-term effects of the screening interventions we evaluate, there are little data available to describe their long-term effects. Although there is some evidence that effectiveness declines over time to baseline,37 we model the interventions as having an enduring effect on the relative risk of remaining unscreened (favors enhanced screening). Fourth, because the age-, ER-, and treatment-stratified survival we used were based on up to 15 years of observation, we made several simplifying assumptions about average survival beyond this period. We assumed that women either diagnosed with DCIS destined to progress to local stage-invasive disease or those diagnosed with local stage who survived for 15 years without recurrence would have similar survival after that time as their age- and race-matched non-breast cancer cohort (eg, are cured). Survival for women with DCIS and local disease who have recurrent disease at 15 years, or for women with regional disease surviving 15 years, was estimated using stage-specific declining exponential approximation of life expectancy.38 We also assume that survival is the same for women with screen-detected and clinically detected cancers. This assumption is likely to underestimate the effectiveness of mammography. Finally, in our model, the effectiveness of mammography is represented purely by the resulting stage shift. We use the stage distributions of tumors observed in a period before mammography (1975 to 1979) and in the current period (1995 to 2001) when use was high to represent the stage distributions of clinically detected and screen-detected lesions, respectively.
Model Parameters
Disease Natural History Breast cancer incidence rates for African American women were estimated from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data.1 Stage distributions for screened and unscreened women were taken from two different sources. Data from SEER from 1975 to 1979 were used to approximate the distribution of events in the absence of screening.1 Data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium39 from 1995 to 2001 were used to represent the stage distribution for screen-detected African American women (Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, W. Barlow, personal communication, June 2002). Screen-detected cancer was defined as a cancer diagnosed within 3 months of a positive screening mammogram performed in the absence of symptoms; screening intervals reflected average population use. Because women who were reported as having stage unknown in SEER1 in both periods had survival rates between those of women with regional and distant disease. Therefore, among the 10% of women with missing stage for each period, we reassigned 50% as regional and 50% as distant. Time to stage progression (eg, from DCIS to invasive cancer, from local to regional disease, or from no active disease to recurrence) was estimated based on data from randomized clinical trials of breast cancer screening and simulating stage distributions in the screened and unscreened settings.40-44 Average dwell times were assumed to have an exponential distribution.43,44
Test Characteristics
Rates of Mammography Use
Interventions to Improve Mammography Use To estimate the effect of patient reminders and lay health workers, we combined data from studies in random-effects meta-analysis models to calculate the relative risk of remaining unscreened after the one-time application of the intervention.
Diagnostic Evaluation
Treatment
Improving Treatment Patterns
Life Expectancy
Costs Costs associated with the screening interventions were calculated using micro-costing methods. Nonmedical costs included patient time spent receiving screening, diagnostic evaluation, and treatment, and travel and waiting time for receiving care. Average travel and waiting times and time spent receiving services were estimated from prior research and clinical estimates.74-76 Costs were obtained by multiplying these times by median United States wage rates for African American women.82 The costs of lost productivity as a result of breast cancer morbidity and mortality would be accounted for by decrements in utilities used to quality-adjust years of life saved (see next section).
Sensitivity Analyses
Model Validation and Statistical Testing
Role of Funding Source
Screening African American women have a 7.2% cumulative risk of developing breast cancer from age 40 years to death in our simulation. At status quo baseline screening rates of 76%, with a program of biennial screening beginning at age 40 years, each woman will undergo an average of 10 mammograms in her lifetime and has a 54% cumulative risk of having a false-positive screening result in this period (Table 4). Compared with no screening, screening saves 11 days of life per capita (undiscounted).
Using patient reminders or lay workers increases the average number of mammograms from the status quo by less than one over a lifetime and increases the risk of a false-positive screen by 6.5%. At current screening levels, enhanced screening efforts are associated with only a slight increase in population life expectancy after age 40 years (< 1 day per woman, undiscounted); there is only a marginal difference between the two approaches. Among women destined to develop breast cancer, increasing screening saves an additional 11 days of life compared with the current status quo. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios associated with increased screening resulting from patient reminders and lay navigation are shown in Table 4. Comparing each approach to the status quo, both result in cost-effectiveness ratios of greater than $100,000 per life year saved. These high costs reflect increased use of mammography and earlier expenditures on treatment without appreciable benefits in life extension.
Treatment
Sensitivity Analysis Adjustment for a range of utility values does not change the conclusion that enhanced screening is not cost-effective at current screening levels (eg, using patient reminders v status quo screening is also very expensive when utilities are considered, costing $200,000 per quality-adjusted life years). Delays in the timing of diagnostic evaluation of an abnormal screening test decrease the cost-effectiveness ratios for screening minimally, because delay would have to lead to stage progression from one stage to the next to have a significant impact on life expectancy (data not shown).
This is the first analysis that we are aware of that examines the cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening in African American women and examines the costs and benefits of enhancing screening or treatment. Overall, our results suggest that maximal improvements in breast cancer outcomes could be achieved by concentrating resources on delivery of the most intensive treatment regimens to all African American patients with breast cancer. Additional investments in screening should be reserved for situations in which there are pockets of unscreened women or for ensuring that all high-risk women are screened. Meta-analyses of breast cancer polydrug chemotherapy and tamoxifen clinical trials have demonstrated statistically significant reductions in overall mortality in general populations around the world.85,86 On the basis of these results, current standards of care for local and regional breast cancer include recommendations for systemic treatment.55,56 Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that chemotherapy pharmacokinetics, which may differ by race, influence treatment effectiveness.87 For instance, Dignam et al88,89 demonstrated equal efficacy of adjuvant tamoxifen and chemotherapy in African American and white breast cancer patients treated in cooperative group trials. Current patterns of treatment remain suboptimal, and nationally only one half of African American women with breast cancer who are eligible for systemic adjuvant chemotherapy are, in fact, receiving some form of systemic treatment.54 At present, we do not know the reasons for the divergence of the patterns of care and guidelines for African American women. It is possible that physicians are emphasizing treatment toxicity and quality of life, and not survival, or that patients are poorly informed about chemotherapy risks and benefits. Significant comorbidity or strong patient preferences may be very legitimate reasons for the omission of systemic adjuvant treatment, whereas lack of insurance, race, socioeconomic status, or incomplete understanding should not preclude this treatment. Unfortunately, there are pervasive differences in access to cancer treatment services, including chemotherapy and referral to a medical oncologist3 by race, income, education, or insurance and setting of care.90-98 Although National Cancer Institute cooperative group trials have enrolled numbers of African Americans proportional to the population cancer burden,99 African Americans are still less likely to be offered trial participation than white patients.100 Patient beliefs may also affect patterns of care. Cancer is a disease with strong stigma.101-103 Cancer treatments are often perceived as "worse than the disease" and can "make you sicker instead of better."104 Decision making and prognosis are often deferred to God: "If it's my time, God will decide" and "God directed me...to the treatments I had."104 After the Tuskegee Study, such ideas are compounded by mistrust of the medical care system by African American patients.105,106 Our results suggest that substantial investments could be made in educational or other interventions to overcome barriers to care and improve referral for and uptake of systemic adjuvant therapy for breast cancer among African American women. Such investments results in costs per live years saved that are well within acceptable ranges.84 Examples of interventions that might be used to increase the proportion of African American women receiving recommended treatment include peer treatment workers (addressing trust and shared cultural perspectives), tailored decision aides (using cultural and patient-specific tailoring to overcome barriers), physician education (enhancing sensitivity and elicitation of patient preferences), and physician chart audit with feedback. We estimate that any of these approaches would cost less than our threshold of approximately $6,000 per patient. However, given the complexity of treatment delivery and decisions and patient adherence, the optimal benefits projected in our model may not be fully realized, even with the best interventions. Nonetheless, given current patterns of care, any improvement in dissemination of recommended treatment should be cost effective. The fact that screening rates are high in the United States and that rates are similar for African American and white patients13 reflects the success of decades of screening interventions. We evaluated the ability of the most effective (and least costly) interventions79,80 to further improve outcomes at the current point in time. Given the success of prior programs, additional efforts are quite expensive relative to the additional savings in lives, unless targeted to pockets of unscreened women or to women at twice the average risk of disease. Thus reaching hard to reach women who are unscreened or underscreened and educating women about risk factors remain important goals. It is also possible that screening results would differ with the availability of newer, more sensitive screening tests. Additionally, for women destined to develop ER-positive cancer, tamoxifen seems to be cost effective in high-risk white women.107 It will be important to examine the balance of risks and benefits for African American women, who have fewer ER-positive tumors and a higher prevalence of cardiovascular diseases that predispose to side effects than white women.108 Our model results are similar to other evaluations of screening in general populations. For instance, Elmore et al109 estimated that the cumulative risk for 40- to 49-year-old women having a false-positive mammogram is approximately 56% after 10 screens, and our model predicts a 54% risk. Our estimate of the lifetime risk of breast cancer (7.2%) is also similar to that calculated by Eddy21 in 1989 (approximately 6.5%). Our analysis has several important strengths, including use of current standards for cost-effectiveness analyses,26 evaluation of an important population subgroup, inclusion of the best quality and least biased data, a robust model, comparison of different cancer control strategies, and assessment of uncertainty. Despite these strengths, there are several caveats that should be considered when interpreting our results, such as precision in estimating the natural history of breast cancer in African Americans, our method of evaluating mammography effectiveness and choice of screening technology, use of modeling, disutility of having a false-positive screen for cancer, ability to detect small effects, and generalizability. We have used the best data available to delineate the natural history of breast cancer in African American women. However, many aspects of the disease behavior are poorly understood, and there are insufficient data at this point in time to model other markers of disease aggressiveness. Our model is designed to incorporate such data as they become available. Our results must be considered in the context of the current controversies about the effectiveness of mammography.110 We rely on observed stage distributions among screened and unscreened populations to calculate screening benefits. Our results are compatible with the view that screening is associated with small improvements in life expectancy. We did not evaluate the impact of new technologies that are currently under evaluation as alternative screening approaches, such as digital mammography or breast magnetic resonance imaging. When data are available on test characteristics of these strategies, we could reassess the cost effectiveness of the new technologies relative to mammography or to treatment enhancement. Ideally, large-scale randomized studies would be conducted to evaluate optimal cancer control approaches in African American women. However, because breast cancer is a rare event, conducting trials of all possible approaches is not feasible (or ethical). Under these circumstances, models can be useful to combine the best data available and project events over a sufficiently long time horizon to observe incidence and mortality end points.111 To the extent that data are of poor quality, or assumptions are incorrect, model results can be inconclusive. However, there are reliable data on the natural history of breast neoplasia, and our results were robust over wide ranges of multiple parameters. Our model does not capture the effects of distress associated with a falsely positive screen or the disutility of having cancer. We know of no data that measure breast cancer utilities among African American women. However, the transient nature of false-positives is not likely to alter conclusions of the analysis, and results were not sensitive to assumptions about utilities for cancer states. There were very small screening benefits associated with enhanced use of mammography. It was difficult to detect larger screening intervention effects for several reasons. First, current rates of mammography use are quite high.13 At these rates, the modest effects of a prototypical intervention are insufficient to produce an appreciable effect on life expectancy. Second, this type of intervention has, in part, become part of standard care that we used as a comparator. Third, current treatment regimens for DCIS, local, and regional disease are highly effective. Large improvements in survival resulting from screening occur primarily in women who avoid presenting with distant disease. Such women represent only a minority of women in populations where screening is in widespread use. Finally, the relatively high cost-effectiveness ratio for enhanced screening compared with improving treatment is also related to the fact that screening the entire population is very costly. However, the benefits only accrue to the small number of women who develop cancer but are averaged over the whole population, yielding a small per woman benefit. In contrast, the costs of treatment interventions are applied to a much smaller number of women, all of whom will benefit directly. Finally, our results are only generalizable to African American women. We did not examine results for black patients from other countries or for white women. Because certain populations of white patients, such as low-income or uninsured women in the United States, are also at risk for poor cancer outcomes, this will be an important area for future extensions of our model. The survival data we used may not be representative of the general population of African American women, because clinical trials generally enroll healthy volunteers. However, these trials did include a representative sample of African American women (10% to 12%), enhancing the external validity of our results. The results of this cost-effectiveness analysis are intended to inform clinical and policy debates about cancer services for vulnerable populations. Overall, our results suggest that except in pockets of unscreened or high-risk women, investments in further improvements in screening use are unlikely to be an efficient use of limited health care resources. The most cost-effective interventions are likely to be those ensuring that African American women receive the most intensive treatment once cancer is diagnosed.
Members of Project Advisory Committee include the following: Joy Anderson, MD, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey; Nina Bickell, MD, Mount Sinai Medical Center; Martin Brown, PhD, National Cancer Institute, Applied Research Branch; Robert Burack, MD, MPH, Wayne State University; Sandra Decker, PhD, Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service; Alexandra Heerdt, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center; Katherine Hempstead, PhD, New York University; Robert Hiatt, MD, PhD, National Cancer Institute; Dorothy S. Lane, MD, MPH, State University of New York at Stony Brook; Ngina Lythcott, DrPH, Joseph L. Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University; Electra Paskett, PhD, Wake Forest University School of Medicine; Jeanne Petrek, MD, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center; Pamela Ransom, PhD, Women's Environment and Development Organization; Louise Russell, PhD, Rutgers University; Henry Sacks, MD, Mount Sinai Medical Center; Julia Scott, RN, National African American Women's Health Project; Ruby Senie, PhD, Mailman School of Public Health of Columbia University; Donna Shelley, MD, MPH, New York City Department of Health; Albert Siu, MD, Mount Sinai Medical Center; Nicole Urban, ScD, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center; Jerome Wilson, PhD, Janssen Pharmaceutical; and Mary Wolff, PhD, Mount Sinai Medical Center.
The authors indicated no potential conflicts of interest.
We thank the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium for stage data for screened women; Joan Warren, Martin Brown, and Nicola Schussler for providing SEER-Medicare cost data; Martin Brown for programmatic support; members of our Advisory Committee for scientific review; Nina Kontos for project coordination, and Trina McClendon for manuscript preparation.
Supported by grants K05 CA96940 (J.S.M.) and RO1 CA72908 (J.S.M., K.R.Y., C.B.S., P.M., and M.F.) and cooperative agreement No. UO1-CA88293A from the National Cancer Institute (J.S.M., K.R.Y.,W.L., C.B.S., J.C., Y.C., and J.D.), Bethesda, MD. Authors' disclosures of potential conflicts of interest are found at the end of this article.
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