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Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 24, No 12 (April 20), 2006: pp. 1839-1845 © 2006 American Society of Clinical Oncology. DOI: 10.1200/JCO.2005.04.7019 Gene Expression Signature Predicting Pathologic Complete Response With Gemcitabine, Epirubicin, and Docetaxel in Primary Breast Cancer
From the Divisions of Molecular Genetics, Theoretical Bioinformatics, and Biostatistics, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum; and Departments of Gynecology and Obstetrics and Pathology, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany Address reprint requests to Andreas Schneeweiss, MD, Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, University of Heidelberg, Hospitalstrasse, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany; e-mail: andreas.schneeweiss{at}med.uni-heidelberg.de
PURPOSE: Primary systemic therapy (PST) with gemcitabine (G), epirubicin (E), and docetaxel (Doc) has resulted in a pathologic complete response (pCR) in 26% of primary breast cancer patients. This study was aimed at the identification of a gene expression signature in diagnostic core biopsy tissue samples that predicts pCR. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Core biopsy samples from patients with operable primary breast cancer, T2-4N0-2M0, enrolled onto two phase I and II trials evaluating GEDoc (n = 48) and GE sequentially followed by Doc (GEsDoc; n = 52) as PST were snap frozen and subjected to RNA expression profiling. A signature predicting pCR was discovered in the training set (GEsDoc) applying a support vector machine algorithm, and performance of this classifier was validated on the independent test set (GEDoc) by receiver operator characteristics analysis. RESULTS: We identified a signature consisting of 512 genes, which was enriched in genes involved in transforming growth factor beta and RAS-mediated signaling pathways, that predicts pCR with a sensitivity of 78%, a specificity of 90%, and an overall accuracy of 88% (95% CI, 75% to 95%). Apart from our signature, only HER2 overexpression was an independent predictor of pCR in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our gene expression signature allows prediction of pCR to PST containing G, E, and Doc with unprecedented high overall accuracy and robustness.
In early breast cancer, preoperative (primary systemic) and postoperative (adjuvant) chemotherapy are equally effective in terms of disease-free and overall survival rates.1 However, primary systemic therapy (PST) permits observation of tumor response to treatment. This is of particular importance because pathologic complete response (pCR), which is defined as the disappearance of all invasive cancer cells in the breast after PST, strongly correlates with improved long-term survival.2-4 Conversely, patients not achieving pCR might not generally benefit because they experience the same long-term outcome as patients who do not respond.5 Several strategies have been successful in significantly increasing the pCR rate in patients with primary breast cancer, one of which is the sequential addition of docetaxel to doxorubicin-based combination PST regimens, resulting in pCR rates of approximately 25% to 30%.6-8 Triple-combination therapy and sequential, dose-dense PST with gemcitabine (G), epirubicin (E), and docetaxel (Doc) also yielded promising pCR rates of 26%.9,10 Nevertheless, chemotherapy is applied empirically, and not all patients benefit from this approach. Currently, there is no clinically useful molecular predictor of response to any cytotoxic drug used in the treatment of breast cancer.11 Furthermore, single clinical or molecular parameters, such as tumor size, histology, hormone receptor or human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) expression, and tumor grade, among others, show only weak association with response (summarized in Hortobagyi et al12). Partially, this might be a result of the heterogeneous definition of response. Recent technologic advances, however, have enabled researchers to scan the expression pattern of thousands of genes (ie, thousands of possible predictive factors) in individual tumors at once and to identify gene expression patterns that are predictive of response and outcome in breast cancer patients.13-16
This study was designed to discover a gene expression profile that predicts pCR to PST with G, E, and Doc administered either as triple therapy (GEDoc; every 3 weeks) or as a dose-dense sequential therapy (GE
Eligibility Criteria Women with newly diagnosed nonmetastatic breast cancer presenting at the University of Heidelberg (Heidelberg, Germany) were enrolled onto this study if they had a biopsy-proven T2-4N0-2M0 primary breast cancer with sufficient amount of snap-frozen tissue collected for microarray analysis, were 18 to 65 years old, had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 to 2, had not received any prior therapy for breast cancer, had adequate organ function, and gave written informed consent. No evidence of distant metastatic disease was assessed by physical examination, chest x-ray, liver ultrasound, bone scan, and full blood count. The study protocol was approved by the Joint Ethical Committee of the University of Heidelberg.
Treatment and Response Patients proceeded to surgery within 4 weeks after the last dose of chemotherapy. If breast-conserving surgery was not possible, a modified radical mastectomy was recommended.9,10 Pathologic response was defined as no invasive tumor residuals in the removed breast tissue. All patients undergoing a breast-conserving procedure received standard radiotherapy to the remaining breast. Radiotherapy to the chest wall or regional lymph nodes was performed according to national standards.
Immunohistochemistry
Tissue Samples
RNA Extraction
Transcriptome Amplification and Labeling
Microarrays
Data Preprocessing
Data Analysis A penalized logistic regression analysis26 was performed to compare the predictive value of the gene expression signature (based on the previously described binary classification into pCR and non-pCR patients) with conventional parameters predicting pCR (tumor grade, partial response after 6 weeks of chemotherapy, hormone receptor status, HER2 status, and tumor size) for the patients in the independent test set. As a result of the sample size, a wide CI was expected.
Validation of Microarray Results
A total of 100 patients were enrolled between January 2002 and November 2004. Of these, 52 and 48 patients received chemotherapy with GEsDoc and GEDoc, respectively. Patient characteristics are listed in Table 1. From the core biopsies of these patients, expression profiles were assessed using DNA microarrays, which test for 21,139 human genes. Expression data obtained by microarray analysis were validated for a small subset of differentially expressed genes by RT-PCR (Fig 1). Differential expression was confirmed for the known marker genes ESR1 and HER2 as well as for BAMBI, DAPK2, LMO4, and SMAD3, but not for SRC.
Gene ExpressionBased Prediction of pCR Of the 52 patients in the training set (GEsDOC), 15 patients (29%) showed pCR. Of the 48 patients in the test set (GEDoc), nine patients (19%) showed pCR. Cross validation of predictive models testing subsets of genes of different sizes revealed that the number of genes used for the model can be reduced to 512 genes without decreasing its performance (list of genes and graphical presentation as heatmaps are provided in Supplementary Table S2 and in Supplementary Figs S1A and S1B). Using a predictive model based on these genes, the predictor was validated on the independent test set and illustrated by a receiver operator characteristic graph (Fig 2A). It allowed classification of the test set with an accuracy of 88% (95% CI, 75% to 95%), a sensitivity of 78% (95% CI, 40% to 97%), and a specificity of 90% (95% CI, 76% to 97%; Fig 2B). Characteristics of misclassified patients are listed in Supplementary Table S3.
Multivariate analysis of the parameters of tumor grade, partial response after 6 weeks of chemotherapy, hormone receptor status, HER2 status, and tumor size (all determined at diagnosis) versus the gene signature showed that the predictive gene expression profile and HER2 status (HER2 score of 3 as determined by immunohistochemistry) are the only independent predictors of pCR (Table 2).
Gene Expression Signature Analysis The biologic function of the 512 genes comprising the predictive signature was examined by assistance of the Gene Ontology database (Fig 3). Notably, there was a higher number of genes contributing to TGF-ß signaling, RAS signaling, DNA damage response, and apoptotic pathways (Table 3).
This study was aimed at the identification of a gene expression signature that predicts whether a patient with primary nonmetastatic breast cancer will benefit from a primary systemic treatment containing gemcitabine, epirubicin, and docetaxel by achieving a pCR. Expression profiles were assessed from core biopsy tissue samples obtained within two clinical trials administering these drugs either as GEDoc or GEsDoc.9,10 Because both studies enrolled patients meeting the same criteria, applied the same drugs, and resulted in the same rate of pCR (26%), molecular data from these studies are highly comparable. We used the expression data from the GEsDoc study as a training set for the identification of an outcome predictor by applying a support vector machine algorithm and subsequently validated its performance on independent data from the GEDoc study serving as the test set. Because both data sets are of similar size, this is a robust approach for the discovery of a predictive gene signature. We were able to identify a gene signature that predicts with high efficacy those patients who will have a pCR versus those patients who will not. Notably, this gene expression signature showed superior predictive value compared with known markers such as hormone receptor status, tumor grading, tumor size, and response after 6 weeks of PST. In addition, in multivariate analysis, our gene signature was the only independent predictive marker for pCR except for the HER2 status. Most information about the usefulness of gene expression arrays in human breast cancer is available for questions of predicting whether a primary breast tumor has metastasized or will metastasize to lymph nodes or distant organs (for an overview, see Weigelt et al29); only a few studies have investigated gene signatures with respect to prediction of response to a PST.16,30-32 A recent study by Rouzier et al32 investigated a series of 82 patients treated with paclitaxel followed by fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide, who were subdivided into four molecular subtypes by different means according to the work of Perou et al33 and Sørlie et al.34 Two of these molecular subgroups displayed high rates of pCR; these subgroups were the basal-like and the erbB2-positive (HER2-positive) subgroups. However, none of the genes associated with pCR in the basal-like subgroup was associated with pCR in the HER2-positive subgroup. Because there was a clear preselection of the sample sets based on a published breast cancer intrinsic gene set, the basal-like and HER2-positive subgroups in this study cannot serve as training and test sets. Future validation of the gene set identified in the basal-like subgroup, using an independent set of basal-like breast tumors, will allow the assessment of the predictive potential of this gene set with respect to pCR. To date, three other published studies have aimed at the identification of gene signatures predicting response to PST. Notably, two of these trials did not use the end point of pCR,30,31 which is the only one that had been shown to prospectively correlate with patient survival.4,5 Because Chang et al30 scored clinical response by a 50% tumor reduction, these data are not comparable to the data in our study, and it cannot be expected that their gene signature predicts pCR. Hannemann et al31 pooled pCR and near pCR for the end point of the trial. Because near pCR likely does not correlate with patient survival,5 this might explain why the authors were unable to identify a gene signature within their training set correlating with therapy response. Clearly, prediction of pCR as a valuable surrogate for survival is highly dependent on strict application of the criteria for pCR, as performed in the present study and in the trial by Ayers et al.16 In the latter study, a training set of 24 patients, including six pCR patients, was used to discover a predictive gene signature, which was validated in a test set of 18 patients including seven pCR patients. Although the overall accuracy amounted to 78% (95% CI, 52% to 94%), three of the seven pCR patients (sensitivity, 43%) and 11 of the 11 residual disease patients (specificity, 100%) were correctly predicted. Here, we present a study with a considerably larger series of tumors, allowing the definition of a predictive gene signature with improved robustness (88% overall accuracy; 95% CI, 75% to 95%). The main focus of our model to predict pCR was to achieve a high overall accuracy, resulting from a particularly high sensitivity of 78% and a good specificity of 90% compared with the results of Ayers et al.16 Optimization towards the sensitivity of the marker set was performed because our aim was the identification of the maximal number of patients benefiting from the PST. The current development of drug prescription based on improved molecular diagnostics (as exemplified in the case of trastuzumab administration depending on amplification and overexpression of HER2) emphasizes the necessity of identifying those patients who benefit from the therapy in a robust manner. Clearly, this development also creates a strong pressure for the development of further treatment options for those patients who do not benefit from current therapy regimens. Although it is currently not possible to determine to what degree our predictive gene signature is discovering response to PST in general or specific effects of the administered drugs, the fact that the study by Ayers et al,16 which applied a different treatment (paclitaxel followed by fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide), identified a nonoverlapping signature might indicate that gene signatures predictive for PST response also contain drug-specific features. In contrast, the differences between our predictive signature and the signatures to predict metastases (eg, see van't Veer et al13) might be well explained by the different scientific questions aimed at considerably different biologic properties of breast tumors. Moreover, for complex diseases like breast cancer, several sets of outcome-predictive genes may exist as an answer to the same scientific question because many genes can show a tight correlation to patient survival.35 The biologic function of the genes contained in our signature, as revealed by the Gene Ontology database, is summarized in Figure 3 and shows a predominance of genes encoding enzymes and proteins binding to nucleic acids, many of which are transcriptional regulators. Consideration of related gene functions revealed the following four prominent groups of genes known to be often affected in tumorigenesis: genes coding for members of the TGF-ß pathway, an even larger number of RAS-related genes, and genes involved in DNA damage response and apoptosis (Table 3). An interesting feature of the TGF-ß pathway is its downstream effect on BRCA1 (Fig 4) and its association with DNA damage response.36 The signature suggests that BRCA1 is inhibited because BAMBI and LMO4 are upregulated, whereas the possible BRCA1 inductor SRC is not, according to quantitative PCR-based expression analysis (Fig 1). It is tempting to speculate that tumors with reduced DNA repair capacity are more sensitive to the applied PST, which contains a purin analog (gemcitabine) to be incorporated into cellular DNA that is not effectively repaired. The second prominent group of genes encoding RAS-related proteins also provides a connection to DNA damageassociated cell growth regulation. However, the genes of a predictive signature are not necessarily the key players involved in the etiology of the investigated disease.37 The task to exclusively find all genes with biologic importance for a given disease is not only a task that is different than the task of finding a set of genes with discriminative power, but it is also a task for which no mature methodology exists.
As currently exemplified for those gene signatures described for the prediction of metastasizing breast cancer, it will be necessary to assess the performance of signatures predictive for pCR after PST, as presented in our study, in comprehensive prospective treatment trials. Only large randomized studies with treatment arms including different combinations of drugs will allow testing of the practical robustness of the new marker sets and will provide more detailed knowledge about the drug or treatment specificity of a gene signature.
Although all authors completed the disclosure declaration, the following authors or their immediate family members indicated a financial interest. No conflict exists for drugs or devices used in a study if they are not being evaluated as part of the investigation. For a detailed description of the disclosure categories, or for more information about ASCO's conflict of interest policy, please refer to the Author Disclosure Declaration and the Disclosures of Potential Conflicts of Interest section in Information for Contributors.
Dollar Amount Codes (A) < $10,000 (B) $10,000-99,999 (C)
We thank Johannes Blatter, Sabine Greulich, and Thomas Bauknecht (Lilly Deutschland), Allen Melemed (Eli Lilly & Company, Indianapolis, IN) and Gunther Bastert (Heidelberg) for support.
Supported by Research Fund from Lilly Deutschland GmbH. Both O.T. and A.S. contributed equally to this study. Presented in part at the 41st Annual Meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Orlando, FL, May 13-17, 2005. Authors' disclosures of potential conflicts of interest and author contributions are found at the end of this article.
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Copyright © 2006 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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