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Originally published as JCO Early Release 10.1200/JCO.2006.08.8013 on July 30 2007

Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 25, No 24 (August 20), 2007: pp. 3670-3679
© 2007 American Society of Clinical Oncology.

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Doctor, What Are My Chances of Having a Positive Sentinel Node? A Validated Nomogram for Risk Estimation

José Luiz B. Bevilacqua, Michael W. Kattan, Jane V. Fey, Hiram S. Cody, III, Patrick I. Borgen, Kimberly J. Van Zee

From the Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY; the Department of Quantitative Health Sciences Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH; and the Departmento de Cirurgia, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Address reprint requests to Kimberly J. Van Zee, MS, MD, FACS, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 1275 York Ave, MRI 1026, New York, NY 10021; e-mail: vanzeek{at}mskcc.org


    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
Purpose Lymph node metastasis is a multifactorial event. Several variables have been described as predictors of lymph node metastasis in breast cancer. However, it is difficult to apply these data—usually expressed as odds ratios—to calculate the probability of sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis for a specific patient. We developed a user-friendly prediction model (nomogram) based on a large data set to assist in predicting the presence of SLN metastasis.

Patients and Methods Clinical and pathologic features of 3,786 sequential SLN biopsy procedures were assessed with multivariable logistic regression to predict the presence of SLN metastasis in breast cancer. The model was subsequently applied to 1,545 sequential SLN biopsies. A nomogram was created from the logistic regression model. A computerized version of the nomogram was developed and is available on the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (New York, NY) Web site.

Results Age, tumor size, tumor type, lymphovascular invasion, tumor location, multifocality, and estrogen and progesterone receptors were associated with SLN metastasis in multivariate analysis. The nomogram was accurate and discriminating, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.754 when applied to the validation group.

Conclusion Newly diagnosed breast cancer patients are increasingly interested in information about their disease. This nomogram is a useful tool that helps physicians and patients to accurately predict the likelihood of SLN metastasis.


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
Axillary lymph node status is the most influential prognostic factor in patients with invasive breast cancer.1-4 Axillary sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy is a standard of care for patients with early-stage breast cancer, replacing traditional axillary lymph node dissection when the SLN is negative.5-7

Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is a multifactorial event. Several variables have been described as predictors of LNM in breast cancer (Appendix Table A1, online only). Usually the results of multivariate analyses of predictors of LMN are expressed as odds ratios, which make it difficult to apply and calculate the probability of SLN metastases for a specific patient.

Newly diagnosed breast cancer patients are increasingly interested in information about their disease. In 2004, eight of 10 Internet users searched online for information on at least one major health topic, which translates to about 100 million American adults who use the Internet to obtain health information.8 Breast cancer is one of the most common health topics researched online, and breast oncologists are likely to encounter more patients who have used the Internet in the context of their diagnosis.9-19

With an increased focus on consumer and patient use of information technologies (eg, Internet, multimedia home-care informatics, computerized educational programs) for medical information, tailoring this information appropriately to individuals’ cancers, literacy, and culture-specific needs should be a priority.20

The new web-oriented patient demands more precise answers for her questions. Therefore, even with many studies on prediction of LNM, it is a quite challenge to answer precisely (numerically) the simple question: Doctor, what are my chances of having a positive sentinel node?

The goal of this study is to create, using a large data set, a validated nomogram to assist in predicting the presence of SLN metastasis in breast cancer, and to develop a user-friendly software program to allow easy calculation of the risk predicted by the nomogram.


    PATIENTS AND METHODS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
This project was reviewed and approved by the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC; New York, NY) institutional review board. Data were obtained from retrospective review of a database in which data were prospectively collected for each procedure. The patients were arbitrarily separated into two groups by date of SLN biopsy: the modeling group and the validation group.

Our modeling study population consisted of the 4,608 breast cancer procedures of axillary SLN biopsy performed at MSKCC between September 12, 1996, and July 31, 2002. The inclusion criteria were patients with invasive breast carcinoma who had not undergone neoadjuvant treatment, and who underwent a successful SLN biopsy. A total of 3,786 SLN procedures were eligible for our study and were considered the modeling group.

The validation study population consisted of 2,037 SLN biopsies performed at MSKCC between August 1, 2002 and May 1, 2004. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were identical to those in the modeling population, except for the date of SLN biopsy. There were 1,545 eligible procedures, and these were classified as the validation group. Detailed information for exclusions is listed in Appendix Table A2 (online only). Clinicopathologic characteristics of the modeling and validation groups are described in Table 1.


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Table 1. Descriptive Characteristics of Modeling and Validation Groups

 
We utilized each of the following variables: age, sex, primary tumor size, laterality, palpability, histologic tumor type, histologic grade, nuclear grade, tumor location within the breast (quadrant), lymphovascular invasion (LVI), multifocality, estrogen receptor (ER) status, progesterone receptor (PR) status, HER-2/neu status, and type of surgery.

The method of pathologic evaluation of SLNs has not changed after the first 78 cases of the sentinel node protocol (institutional review board protocol No. 96-049). Beginning with case 79, frozen section and immunohistochemical (IHC)-stained sections were routinely performed. IHC staining was done retrospectively in the first 78 cases.

The technique of SLN biopsy and histopathologic analyses have been described elsewhere.21

Statistical Methods
The variables analyzed for the prediction of SLN metastasis are listed in Table 1. Statistical analyses were done using the statistical software program SPSS, version 10.0.5 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL), StatXact, version 4.0.1 (Cytel Software Corporation, Cambridge, MA) and S-Plus, version 2000, professional edition with design library (Mathsoft, Data Analysis Products Division, Seattle, WA).

Logistic regressions, using interaction between the predictor and data set, tested whether a significant shift in the relationship between each predictor and SLN positivity occurred across data sets.

A nomogram for predicting SLN metastases was developed based on the patients in the modeling group, and then validated with the patients in the validation group. In the modeling group (n = 3,786), logistic regression was used to analyze the association of each variable with the likelihood of SLN metastases. We used restricted cubic splines to relax the linearity assumption when fit was improved. This model was applied to the validation group (n = 1,545) by inserting all postoperative data into the model and calculating each individual patient's probability of having positive SLNs. The discrimination of the model was measured by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The calibration of the model was assessed graphically. Patients were grouped into deciles based on their nomogram predictions. For each decile, the mean predicted probability was compared with the proportion of patients who actually had positive SLNs (actual probability).

A bootstrapping analysis was also performed. First, we computed the apparent accuracy of the full model on the entire data set. Second, we computed the accuracy on a sample of the same size but with replacement, refitting these data. Third, we then calculated the accuracy of this second model, using the original data set. Optimism is the difference between the second and third accuracies. After repeating this process 200 times, the mean optimism was subtracted from the first model accuracy to arrive at a nearly unbiased estimate.

A user-friendly software program was developed to facilitate the calculation of the probability of SLN metastases for each patient.


    RESULTS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
The overall frequency of SLN metastasis was 33%. The frequency of SLN metastasis by T stage and method of detection of metastases is demonstrated in Figure 1. The great majority of metastases were identified by frozen section of the SLN. The enhanced pathologic analysis identified additional metastases in 10% of patients, 4% by IHC only, and 6% by serial section. There was no statistical difference (Pearson {chi}2, 3.357; P = .34) between the frequencies of method of detection of the modeling (Fig 1) and validation groups (Appendix Fig A1, online only).


Figure 1
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Fig 1. Frequency of sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis by T stage and method of detection of metastases in modeling group. The table provides the precise patient numbers and percentages represented graphically in the figure. (*) Serial section: includes SLN metastases found on serial sections by hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) or H&E as a result of immunohistochemistry (IHC).

 
There was a higher incidence of SLN metastases in the validation group (37.5% v 33.0%; P < .05). No significant shift in the relationship between each predictor and SLN positivity occurred across data sets (all P > .05; Table 2).


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Table 2. Incidence of SLN Metastases for Modeling and Validation Groups by Patients and Pathologic Characteristics

 
In multivariate analysis, variables that were associated with SLN metastasis in breast cancer were tumor type, LVI, tumor size, tumor location, age, multifocality, and ER and PR status (P < .05 for all variables). There was no difference in frequency of SLN metastases between ductal and lobular tumor types (P > .25).

In Appendix Table A3, we list the results of the final logistic regression models for predicting SLN metastasis in breast cancer. We also created a model that does not include ER and PR because this information may not be available before the definitive surgery.

Two nomograms based on these models were developed in the modeling group (n = 3,786) and appear in Figures 2A and 3A. The overall predictive accuracy of the models applied to the validation population, as measured by the area under ROC curve was 0.754 for both nomograms. For each model we built a calibration curve (Figs 2B and 3B) and a plot of the distribution of predicted probabilities (Figs A2 and A3, online only). The bootstrapping analysis demonstrated concordance indices of 0.753.


Figure 2
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Fig 2. Nomogram to predict likelihood of sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastases. Below the nomogram is its calibration plot. See Using the Nomogram in the Results section for instructions on nomogram use and for an additional explanation. Age, patient's age in years; Tumor size, size of invasive carcinoma in cm; Special type, colloid, medullary, or tubular, defined as "Yes" (ductal and lobular are defined as "No"); Location, UIQ quadrants or other quadrants (outer or central); LVI, lymphovascular invasion; Multifocal, multifocality of primary tumor; ER, estrogen receptor status; PR, progesterone receptor status; Nuclear grade, nuclear grade (I, II, II, and lobular).

 

Figure 3
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Fig 3. Nomogram without estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) information. Below the nomogram is its calibration plot. See Using the Nomogram in the Results section for instructions on nomogram use and for an additional explanation. Age, patient's age in years; Tumor size, size of invasive carcinoma in cm; Special type, colloid, medullary, or tubular, defined as "Yes" (ductal and lobular are defined as "No"); Location, UIQ quadrants or other quadrants (outer or central); LVI, lymphovascular invasion; Multifocal, multifocality of primary tumor; Nuclear grade, nuclear grade (I, II, II, and lobular).

 
Using the Nomogram
The nomogram consists of rows. The first row (POINTS) is the point assigment for each variable. For example, in Figure 2A, rows 2 to 10 represent the variables included in the model. For an individual patient, each variable is assigned a point value (uppermost scale, POINTS) based on the clinicopathologic characteristics. A vertical line is made between the appropriate variable value and the POINTS line. The assigned points for all nine variables are summed and the total is found in row 11 (TOTAL POINTS). Once the total is located, a vertical line is made between TOTAL POINTS and the final row, row 12 (Predicted Probability of +SLN).

Below each nomogram is its corresponding calibration plot. The nomogram developed using the modeling group of patients (n = 3,786) was applied to the validation group (n = 1,545). A histogram of the calculated probabilities for the validation group is shown along the horizontal axis. These 1,545 patients are grouped in deciles of their predicted probabilities, and the actual incidence of additional SLN metastases was calculated for each decile. The vertical axis represents the actual observed incidence (Actual Probability), and the horizontal axis represents the probability calculated by the nomogram (Predicted Probability). For each decile of the validation group, a triangle is plotted to show actual probability. If the model were perfect, all triangles would lay on the dotted line with a slope of 1. The version of the nomogram in Figure 2 is for use when information on ER and PR status are available; that in Figure 3 is for those patients where ER and PR status are not available.

To facilitate ease of use in clinical setting, in addition to the graphic nomograms, we have made an application (software) for personal computers, Palm (Palm Inc, Sunnyvale, CA), pocket personal computers, and Macintosh computers (Apple Inc, Cupertino, CA). These applications will be made available at our web site (www.mskcc.org/nomograms).


    DISCUSSION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
The frequency of axillary lymph node metastases (ALNM) by T stage (American Joint Committee on Cancer)3 varies among the studies of pre-SLN era. In the larger studies, the frequency is 10% in T1mic,22 9% to 13% in T1a,23-28 13% to 19% in T1b,23-29 26% to 29% in T1c,23,24,27,29 39% to 50% in T2 less or equal 3 cm,23,24,27,29 48% to 59% in T2 larger than 3 cm,27,29 and 71% to 80% in T3.24,27

The frequency of ALNM in each T stage in the SLN era appears higher than the corresponding frequency from the pre-SLN era. This is likely attributable to the use of enhanced histopathologic analysis in the SLN era, which allows detection of so-called occult metastases, not usually seen in the past with conventional pathologic analyses. Many studies have demonstrated an increase of 10% to 52% in the detection of SLN metastasis owing to the addition of serial sectioning and IHC analyses.30-35 Although the clinical relevance of these micrometastatic deposits is the subject of controversy, data from large studies with long follow-up periods suggest that occult metastases may be associated with a small but significant decrease in overall and/or disease-free survival.36-40 Maibenco et al,41 analyzing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, confirm the impact of micrometastases in long-term survival, but found no difference among patients with tumors smaller than 1 cm. However, other studies did not show any impact of lymph node micrometastases on survival.42,43 Large, ongoing prospective studies such as the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project trial B32 (NSABP B-32), the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group trial Z0010 (ACOSOG-Z0010), and the International Breast Cancer Study Group trial 23-01 will better define the significance of micrometastatic lymph node disease.

The inclusion of IHC-only positive SLNs may cause the nomogram to falsely predict for a positive node. Current AJCC staging criteria labels an IHC-only positive node as N0(i+). However, in our previous study, of patients with an IHC-only positive sentinel node, 12% had additional hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) metastases (macrometastases) on completion axillary dissection, which would have been missed if the patient did not undergo completion axillary dissection.21 Since this information may be relevant, we chose to include both IHC and H&E positive sentinel nodes in the nomogram.

We reviewed the published studies that address the predictors for ALNM in the pre-SLN and SLN eras (Appendix Table A1, online only). The great majority of these studies either collected the data retrospectively, did not mention how the data were collected, or had no central pathology review. In these studies, tumor size, age, LVI, and histologic subtype were the variables most commonly described as independently associated with ALNM. Only two studies, Ravdin at al44 and Gann et al,45 validated their statistical models in another data set. In SLN studies, the variables associated with SLN metastases were, as expected, quite similar. Our study confirms these results, with the additional findings of tumor location (fewer SLN metastases in patients with upper inner quadrant [UIQ] tumors), ER status, and PR status as independent predictor factors associated with SLN metastasis.

The frequencies of SLN metastases in ER/PR-positive tumors were higher than those for ER/PR-negative tumors, corresponding to a small, but significant, increase of 2.0% for ER and 4.6% for PR. Although this observation seems counterintuitive, it actually is in agreement with the findings of other large studies. Ravdin et al44 studied data from 26,683 patients of the National Breast Cancer Tissue Resource. Gann et al45 analyzed data from 18,025 patients of the nationwide Patient Care Evaluation survey of the American College of Surgeons. Viale et al46 from Veronesi's group in Milan, studied the prediction of sentinel LNM for 4,351 patients, and they identified the same order of differences (2.8% for ER; 5.7% for PR).

The lower frequency of SLN metastasis in UIQ location tumors observed in this study suggests the possibility of alternative routes of lymphatic flow, especially to the internal mammary chain. In an earlier comprehensive review of the literature on internal mammary nodes, we have addressed the importance of UIQ tumors in terms of survival and their relation to LNM.47 Two large data set studies highlight the importance and clinical implications of internal mammary sentinel nodes when identified on preoperative lymphoscintigraphy.48,49 Nevertheless, this issue is quite controversial, and it is beyond the scope of this study.

We have developed a nomogram and a corresponding computer application that predict the likelihood of SLN metastases; in the validation test, they performed well (calibration plots in Figs 2 and 3).

The application utilizes nine readily available clinical variables: age, tumor size, tumor type, LVI, multifocality, nuclear grade, tumor location, and ER and PR status. This allows quick and easy calculation. Our patients can now estimate their individual likelihood of having SLN metastases.

It has been suggested that patients with a low risk of axillary lymph node involvement should be spared SLN biopsy.46 While SLN biopsy is an extremely safe procedure with low morbidity, there are some patients, typically elderly, in whom consideration is given to avoiding SLN biopsy because of comorbid conditions. In this small patient population, the nomogram could help to weigh the risks and benefits of SLN biopsy. This application could potentially help physicians to select precisely those patients at very low risk for SLN involvement who could be spared an SLN biopsy. Alternatively, it could encourage a physician to reconsider an initial decision to spare a patient an SLN biopsy in the event that a higher than expected risk is identified. Clearly staging the axilla is more accurate than any predictive model. However, in patients with significant comorbidities, and in whom avoidance of standard axillary staging is being considered, the predicted probability might help the clinician weigh the risks and benefits more appropriately.

One could argue that pathologic information such as tumor size, LVI, and multifocality are available only after a surgical biopsy. Indeed, many patients have excisional biopsies before SLN biopsy, and for these women, all necessary predictive variables are available. For those who have only a core biopsy result available, it has been demonstrated that evaluation of tumor size and multifocality preoperatively with mammography, ultrasound, and/or magnetic resonance imaging is accurate and provides a good estimation of tumor size and the possibility of multifocality.50-60 With the quality of breast imaging available today, it is unlikely to identify large differences between imaging and pathological tumor sizes that would impact dramatically in the estimated probability of the nomogram. However, we agree that this is a limitation of the applicability of the nomogram. A practical solution is to enter values into the nomogram from either end of the range of estimates that seem reasonable for a given variable. For example, if the mammogram suggests a 4-cm spiculated mass, but the sonogram estimates a 2-cm hypoechoic mass, the user can put in both values, and obtain a range of estimates, depending on the final pathology size. Or, if the presence of LVI cannot be precisely assessed, a range of estimates can be calculated with and without LVI.

One could point out that there are differences between the two data sets, in terms of variable distributions and shifts over time; however, these differences put more pressure on the prediction model to be accurate in the validation data set. If the prediction model is accurate, it will properly adjust the predictions to compensate. More important, the results of Table 2 reveal no evidence of a shift in the relationship between any of the predictors and SLN positivity across the development and validation data sets.

Our model is imperfect. The area under the ROC curve was 0.754. This means that if we randomly select two women, one of whom has at least one positive SLN, and one of whom has negative SLNs, there is a 75.4% chance that the model will predict a higher probability for the positive woman. This is a scale that ranges from 0.5, which would be achieved by tossing a coin, to 1.0, which would require perfect ability to distinguish the woman with positive nodes from the one with negative nodes. Another example, for comparison: the area under ROC curve for film and digital mammography is, 0.61 and 0.82, respectively, for the detection of breast cancer.61 Therefore, our nomograms are as accurate for the prediction of a positive sentinel node as mammography is accurate for the detection of breast cancer.

Nevertheless, this nomogram provides an accurate, accessible, multivariate predictive model that has been prospectively validated in a large independent data set. This model and its computer application represent a significant improvement over our intuition or theorization based on subjectivity of guesstimates. Finally, it provides the precise and deserved answer to our patient's question: Doctor, what are my chances of having a positive sentinel node?


    AUTHORS’ DISCLOSURES OF POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
The author(s) indicated no potential conflicts of interest.


    AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
Conception and design: José Luiz B. Bevilacqua, Kimberly J. Van Zee

Financial support: Hiram S. Cody III

Administrative support: Hiram S. Cody III

Provision of study materials or patients: Jane V. Fey, Hiram S. Cody III, Kimberly J. Van Zee

Collection and assembly of data: José Luiz B. Bevilacqua, Michael W. Kattan, Jane V. Fey

Data analysis and interpretation: José Luiz B. Bevilacqua, Michael W. Kattan, Patrick I. Borgen, Kimberly J. Van Zee

Manuscript writing: José Luiz B. Bevilacqua

Final approval of manuscript: José Luiz B. Bevilacqua, Michael W. Kattan, Jane V. Fey, Hiram S. Cody III, Patrick I. Borgen, Kimberly J. Van Zee


    Appendix
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
Go


Figure 4
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Fig A1. Frequency of sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis by T stage and method of detection of metastases in validation group. The table provides the precise patient numbers and percentages represented graphically in the figure. (*) Serial section: includes SLN metastases found on serial sections by hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) or H&E as a result of immunohistochemistry (IHC).

 
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Figure 5
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Fig A2. Plot of the distribution of predicted probabilities for the nomogram with estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) information. The plot consists of two histograms of the two distributions of the predicted probability for the two groups: negative sentinel lymph node and positive sentinel lymph node.

 
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Figure 6
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Fig A3. Plot of the distribution of predicted probabilities for the nomogram without estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) information. The plot consists of two histograms of the two distributions of the predicted probability for the two groups: negative sentinel lymph node and positive sentinel lymph node.

 
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Table A1. Studies Reporting Predictors of ALNM (pre-SLN era) and Sentinel LNM (SLN era)

 
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Table A2. Number of Procedures and Exclusions in Modeling and Validation Groups

 
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Table A3. Results of Logistic Regression Analyses for Predicting the Incidence of SLN Metastases

 


    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 
We thank Alexandra MacDonald for her expert editorial assistance and Ruy Bevilacqua, MD, PhD, for his insights and encouragement.


    NOTES
 
published online ahead of print at www.jco.org on July 30, 2007.

Authors’ disclosures of potential conflicts of interest and author contributions are found at the end of this article.


    REFERENCES
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 PATIENTS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF...
 AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
 Appendix
 REFERENCES
 
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Submitted September 5, 2006; accepted May 17, 2007.


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