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Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 25, No 25 (September 1), 2007: pp. 3965-3970 © 2007 American Society of Clinical Oncology. DOI: 10.1200/JCO.2007.11.4769 Prostate-Specific Antigen and Pain Surrogacy Analysis in Metastatic Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer
From the Duke Comprehensive Cancer Center, Durham, NC; Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD; Department of Medical Oncology, Princess Margaret Hospital and University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; and the Department of Medical Oncology, Rotterdam Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands Address reprint requests to Andrew J. Armstrong, MD, ScM, DUMC Box 3850, Durham, NC 27710; e-mail: andrew.armstrong{at}duke.edu
Purpose It is currently unclear if early prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or pain improvements are adequate surrogates for overall survival in men with metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC). Here we examined various degrees of PSA decline and pain response as surrogates for the survival benefit observed in the TAX327 trial. Patients and Methods In the TAX327 trial, 1,006 men with HRPC were randomly assigned to receive docetaxel in two schedules, or mitoxantrone, each with prednisone: 989 men provided data on 3-month PSA decline. Surrogacy was examined for post-treatment changes in PSA and pain response using Cox proportional hazards models to calculate the proportion of treatment effect (PTE) explained by each potential surrogate.
Results A
Conclusion In the TAX327 trial, a PSA decline of
Men with metastatic hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer (HRPC) have a median survival of 16 to 18 months, despite modern chemotherapy, and prostate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death among men in 2007.1-3 The identification of a surrogate marker for overall survival (OS) in HRPC patients treated with chemotherapy would represent an important advance in improved palliation and in the early identification of active therapies. OS is currently the only valid end point in phase III trials of men with HRPC, and while many efforts have established a correlation of tumor, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), or pain responses with OS, these end points have not been systematically evaluated as surrogates for the OS benefits associated with chemotherapy.4-10
The most thorough analysis for surrogacy of postchemotherapy PSA declines was conducted using the Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) 9916 database.3,6 In this phase III study, 770 men were randomly assigned to docetaxel and estramustine, or mitoxantrone and prednisone (MP), and a range of PSA declines was analyzed for surrogacy. A PSA decline
Subjects and Treatment TAX327 was a randomized phase III study involving 1,006 men with progressive metastatic HRPC, conducted from March 2000 through June 2002. Full details of the protocol have been described.2 Briefly, eligible men had histologically documented metastatic prostatic adenocarcinoma despite castrate serum testosterone levels ( 50 ng/dL), with disease progression defined as clinically or radiographically measurable disease, or by PSA criteria. No prior chemotherapy other than estramustine was allowed, and subjects were required to have stable pain scores at entry. An institutional review board approved the study at each participating institution. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three arms: every-3-weeks docetaxel (every-3-weeks, 75 mg/m2), weekly docetaxel (weekly, 30 mg/m2 5 weeks of 6), or every-3-weeks mitoxantrone (12 mg/m2), all with prednisone 5 mg twice daily. Treatment was planned for 30 weeks in the absence of progression. The primary end point was OS; the present analysis is based on updated survival as of November 7, 2006, at which time 800 deaths had occurred. Serum PSA and pain scores were measured at baseline and every 3 weeks.
Analysis of PSA Declines Besides PSA decline and post-treatment PSA velocity, pretreatment PSA velocity was evaluated using individual linear regression on 676 subjects with three or more pretreatment PSA measures separated by more than 1 week. The ratio of post-treatment to pretreatment PSA velocity was calculated for 646 subjects.14
For PSA normalization, all post-treatment PSA values were analyzed while subjects were on protocol treatment. PSA nadir was measured and considered to be normalized if it dropped to
Pain Response
Surrogacy Evaluation The degree of surrogacy, or PTE, was calculated for each degree of PSA decline and pain response.13 The PTE ranges from 0 to 1, with 1 being a perfect surrogate, and 0 indicating lack of surrogacy. Specifically, PTE is one minus the ratio of the treatment coefficient in the adjusted Cox regression model to the treatment coefficient in the unadjusted model, where adjustment refers to a model that includes the surrogate. For the 95% CI of the PTE, we used the approximation suggested by Lin et al.13 Our comparison of interest was the every-3-weeks DP arm versus the every-3-weeks MP arm, given that the survival benefit was limited to this arm of the trial. However, we included the indicator for every-3-weeks DP versus weekly DP in the model to adjust for potential differences in survival in the two docetaxel arms. An exploratory surrogacy measure that was analyzed is the Nagelkerke R2, which estimates the degree of variation in survival explained by the surrogate.16,17 A rising R2 from the treatment-only Cox model to the surrogate-only model to the adjusted model is indicative of surrogacy.
Updated survival results as of November 2006 were used in this analysis, with 1,006 subjects followed up to 70.1 months, for a total follow-up time of 18,887 person-months, and with 800 subjects known to have died. A detailed analysis of updated survival results for the TAX327 trial will be published elsewhere, but the differences in survival between treatment arms are similar to those in the original study report.2 Seventeen subjects were censored at random assignment due to lack of receipt of protocol treatment, and were thus excluded from analysis, leaving 989 subjects for analysis with PSA data within 3 months of baseline. In addition, 63 subjects had less than three post-treatment PSA values and were not included in the PSA velocity subset analysis. Subjects in this analysis were similar to the overall TAX327 cohort (Appendix Table A1, available online only, and Table 1). In general, the men were predominantly white with a median age of 68 years and had metastatic disease involving bone, and more than 45% were symptomatic with pain. The median baseline PSA doubling time was 55 days, and the median baseline PSA was 113 ng/mL.
Prentice Criteria PSA declines from 0% to 90% of the baseline value within the first 3 months after treatment initiation were evaluated in 10% increments. To evaluate Prentice criteria for surrogacy, univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis of OS with both treatment groups, with PSA declines, and with both variables was performed. Every-3-weeks DP had a hazard ratio (HR) for OS of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.91; P = .003) and a median OS of 19.6 months, while weekly DP had a HR for OS of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.73 to 1.03; P = .098) and a median OS of 18.3 months. Every-3-weeks MP had a median OS of 16.7 months. When a 30% PSA decline was included in this model, treatment lost statistical significance. The adjusted HR for every-3-weeks DP changed to 0.92 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.10; P = .32) and for weekly DP changed to 1.03 (95% CI, 0.86 to 1.23; P = .74). The unadjusted HR for a 30% decline in PSA was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.43 to 0.57; P < .0001), which remained unchanged after adjusting for treatment. Prentice criteria were satisfied for a range of PSA declines, from 10% to 70%, and persisted in landmark analysis at 1 and 2 months following random assignment. Thus, introducing PSA decline as a surrogate into the multivariate model abolished the effects of treatment and retained strong statistical significance as a predictor of OS. The survival curves based on attainment of a 30% PSA decline are shown in Figure 1. Survival curves and median survivals for a range of PSA declines are shown in Figure 2 and described in Appendix Table A2 (available online only).
Proportion of Treatment Effect Explained by PSA Declines To quantify the degree of surrogacy for each PSA decline, the PTE was calculated, and results are presented in Table 2. Figure 3 illustrates the magnitude of the PTE across various levels of PSA declines. The PTE for a 30% 3-month decline in PSA was the highest of all proportionate declines at 0.66, indicating that 66% of the survival benefit attributable to every-3-weeks DP was explained by this change in PSA. This finding persisted using a 1- and 2-month landmark analysis. CIs for all PTE estimates were broad, with the lower limit for each estimate falling below 0.50, indicating modest surrogacy.
The traditional definition for reporting of PSA declines, a confirmed PSA decline 50% among those eligible for PSA response analysis (baseline PSA > 20 ng/mL), was found to be prognostic (HR for OS, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.52) and satisfy Prentice criteria.10 However, the PTE was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.62), notably lower than a 30% decline.
We considered two additional approaches for estimating the PTE. In the first, we combined the two docetaxel arms and compared this group with mitoxantrone. This analysis also indicated that a
Degree of Variance in Survival Explained by PSA Declines
Changes in PSA Velocity
PSA Normalization
Pain Response Pain response was evaluated for surrogacy among those with significant baseline pain (n = 466). These findings complement those of Berthold et al, who found that PSA and pain responses were often independently prognostic.4 One hundred thirty-five subjects experienced a pain response (29%), which was prognostic (HR for OS, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.75) independently of treatment effect. Median survival among those with significant baseline pain who achieved a pain response was 18.6 months, while those who did not achieve a pain response had a median survival of 12.5 months. The estimated PTE for pain response was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.22 to 1.0), indicating modest surrogacy similar to that of the optimal 30% PSA decline, and confirmed with landmark analysis at 1 and 2 months. The median survival advantage with every-3-weeks docetaxel was at least as great if not greater among men without significant baseline pain as it was among those with baseline pain (3.9 and 2.4 months, respectively), indicating that pain response does not fully capture the survival benefits of docetaxel-based chemotherapy.
We have demonstrated that PSA declines following chemotherapy for men with metastatic HRPC have modest surrogacy for OS, with the optimal level being a 30% 3-month decline. This work confirms that of Petrylak et al who conducted a similar analysis of another phase III randomized trial and identified a 30% post-treatment decline in serum PSA as an acceptable surrogate for OS.6 In these trials, this level of decline paralleled the effects of treatment; in TAX327, 67% of patients receiving every-3-weeks docetaxel regimens achieved this level of decline as compared with 44% of patients receiving every-3-weeks mitoxantrone, while in the SWOG 9916 trial, the proportions of patients achieving a 30% PSA decline were 76% and 40%, respectively.3 In SWOG 9916, the proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE) for this surrogate was 1.0, with a 95% CI that ranged from 0.73 to 1.0, indicating a high level of surrogacy.6 In the current analysis, however, more modest surrogacy was noted with a PTE of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.23 to 1.0). The reasons for this discrepancy are unclear, but may relate to the stronger correlation of PSA declines with survival in the SWOG trial.6 The estrogenic activity of estramustine may confer a greater PSA decline compared with MP, thus providing greater distinction between treatments. Thus, for the combination of docetaxel and estramustine, PSA declines may have improved surrogacy for survival. Conversely, in TAX327, the PSA declines with DP were less pronounced compared with MP, despite a survival advantage that was similar to that achieved in SWOG 9916, thus reducing the surrogate properties of PSA declines in this trial. Additionally, factors beyond a 3-month time window may differentially influence survival.18 The identification of an early clinical or biomarker surrogate that captures the treatment effect on survival among men with HRPC would be significant for several reasons. The natural history of men with metastatic HRPC is heterogeneous and difficult to estimate solely using baseline prognostic factors, such as pain, performance status, PSA and PSA kinetics, hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase, and alkaline phosphatase.19-21 An intermediate outcome may refine prognosis and allow optimization of treatment directed at those most likely to benefit, and assist in identifying active experimental therapeutics at an early stage of development.
We evaluated a range of intermediate outcomes for surrogacy of the survival benefit seen with every-3-weeks DP in men with HRPC. We found that while PSA and pain end points were prognostic, they did not meet strict surrogacy criteria. For example, a man with HRPC treated with docetaxel-based therapy who achieves a
The current study indicates that PSA declines are prognostic but not sufficiently rigorous to be guides for modification of treatment. Prospective validation of PSA declines should be performed before use as surrogates for OS in phase III clinical trials in men with HRPC. A
Although all authors completed the disclosure declaration, the following authors or their immediate family members indicated a financial interest. No conflict exists for drugs or devices used in a study if they are not being evaluated as part of the investigation. For a detailed description of the disclosure categories, or for more information about ASCO's conflict of interest policy, please refer to the Author Disclosure Declaration and the Disclosures of Potential Conflicts of Interest section in Information for Contributors. Employment: N/A Leadership: N/A Consultant: Michael A. Carducci, Sanofi-aventis, Centocor, Abbott, Methylgene, MGI Pharma, Dendreon, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline; Ronald de Wit, Sanofi-aventis; Mario A. Eisenberger, Sanofi-aventis, Merck, ImClone, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Cytogen Stock: N/A Honoraria: N/A Research Funds: Michael A. Carducci, Funds, Abbott, Sanofi-aventis; Ian F. Tannock, Funds, Immunex; Ronald de Wit, Funds, Sanofi-aventis; Mario A. Eisenberger, Funds, Sanofi-aventis, Celgene, Cytogen Testimony: N/A Other: N/A
Conception and design: Andrew J. Armstrong, Ian F. Tannock, Mario Eisenberger Financial support: Andrew J. Armstrong Administrative support: Andrew J. Armstrong Provision of study materials or patients: Ian F. Tannock, Ronald de Wit, Mario Eisenberger Collection and assembly of data: Andrew J. Armstrong, Yi-Chun Ou Yang, Ian F. Tannock, Ronald de Wit, Mario Eisenberger Data analysis and interpretation: Andrew J. Armstrong, Elizabeth S. Garrett-Mayer, Yi-Chun Ou Yang, Ian F. Tannock, Mario Eisenberger Manuscript writing: Andrew J. Armstrong, Elizabeth S. Garrett-Mayer, Michael A. Carducci, Ian F. Tannock, Mario Eisenberger Final approval of manuscript: Andrew J. Armstrong, Elizabeth S. Garrett-Mayer, Michael A. Carducci, Ian F. Tannock, Ronald de Wit, Mario Eisenberger
M.A. Rosenthal from Australia; D. Campos (Argentina); H. Gurney and M. Stockler (Australia); M. Rauchenwald (Austria); T. Gil, Y. Humblet, and A. van Oosterom (Belgium); D. Herchenhorn (Brazil); S. Ernst, L. Lacombe, M. Moore, F. Saad, D. Soulieres, P. Venner, and E. Winquist (Canada); M. Urban (Czech Republic) P. Kellokumpu-Lehtinen (Finland); G. Deplanque, B. Duclos, I. Krakowski, and L. Mignot, S Oudard and C. Theodore (France); J. Breul and R. Paul (Germany); I. Bodrogi (Hungary); S. Bracarda (Italy); G. Chahine (Lebanon); J.L. Bruins and J.A. Witjes (the Netherlands); T. Demkow and K. Bar (Poland); O. Kariakine and M. Matveev (Russia); I. Andrasina (Slovak Republic); D. Vorobiof (South Africa); J. Bellmunt and J.-R. Germa (Spain); I. Turesson and A. Widmark (Sweden); A. Horwich, T. Roberts, N.D. James, and J. Wylie (United Kingdom); and L. Baez, W. Dugan, and N. Tirumali (United States).
We thank the many patients who volunteered to participate in the TAX-327 study and the investigators who recruited them and managed their care. Some of these investigators are listed in the online-only Appendix.
Authors' disclosures of potential conflicts of interest and author contributions are found at the end of this article.
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Copyright © 2007 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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